The Market in Pictures, August 16

by | Aug 16, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Beckham: The sharp rise in daily volatility came after 18 months of extremely subdued movement in equity indices

 

Data as of 08.12.2024

 

John Luke: and the VIX spike and reversal was one for the record books, back to the median in only 7 days!

 

Data as of 08.13.2024

 

John Luke: While rates sit at restrictive levels vs. recent years

 

   

Brett: the expectation that the FOMC would immediately cut aggressively has been pared back on better economic data

 

Data as of 08.14.2024

 

Arch: Consumer inflation expectations have plummeted from the 2022 peak

 

Data as of 08.12.2024

 

Joseph: but corporations across sectors are still citing labor costs as a concern for their businesses

 

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 08.15.2024

 

Brad: What’s not coming up on earnings calls are mentions of concerns about a U.S. recession

 

Source:  as of 08.09.2024

 

Dave: even for smaller companies, who have seemed to benefit less from the economic tailwinds

 

Data as of 08.16.2024

 

Beckham: While consumer delinquencies might be creeping a bit higher

 

Data as of 08.07.2024

 

John Luke: the aggressive balance sheet work done by US corporations puts them in a uniquely strong position

 

Data as of July 2024

 

Joseph: and no sign yet of a falloff in large-scale projects

 

Data as of 08.12.2024

 

JD: so the soft landing expected by fund managers remains the most likely bet

 

Data as of 08.12.2024

 

Dave: The hoped-for broadening of earnings by the “493” hasn’t yet kicked in

 

 

Dave: and despite decent results, estimates for Q3 earnings are being pulled back in recent weeks

 

Source: Strategas as of 08.13.2024

 

Brett: that said, the overall trend remains solidly higher and a continuation will be key for market outcomes

 

Data as of 08.12.2024

 

John Luke: The mostly hotly debated area of the economy be housing, where homeowners have been reluctant to give up their historically cheap mortgages

 

Data as of July 2024

 

Brian: but investors have started to re-enter the market after a period of absence

 

Data as of 08.15.2024

 

Brian: Stock buybacks have been a reliable source of price support in recent decades

 

Source: S&P Global as of April 2024

 

Beckham: and the quarterly buyback window just happened to reopen as stocks fell under selling pressure in early August

 

 

Brad: If you’re ever concerned the Mag 7 will be the only way forward for stocks, remember the only constant for markets has been change

 

 

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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