The Market in Pictures, February 16

by | Feb 16, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Dave: The typical pattern for earnings estimates is to start high and fade throughout the year

 

Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.16.2024

 

Brad: but so far in 2024, sales have generally been above estimates, and earnings even more above

 

Data as of 02.13.2024

 

Dave: especially for small caps

 

Data as of 02.12.2024

 

Brett: so maybe this will be the year that broader market earnings catch up to the megacap names

 

Data as of 02.12.2024

 

Brian: Megacap dominance was not a thing for most of the past 70 years

 

Data via GMO as of Jan 2024

 

Dave: and you can clearly say the “average” stock hasn’t done much since rate hikes began in March 2022

 

Source: Piper Sandler as of 02.12.2024

 

Joseph: Fed watchers have extended dates for the expected rate cut cycle

 

Source: CME as of 02.15.2024

 

John Luke: though markets are still ahead of where the actual policy-makers seem to be

 

Data as of 02.13.2024

 

Dave: as the level of inflation measured by monthly CPI has generally come down from the highs of 2022

 

Data as of 02.13.2024

 

Dave: it’s the flattening of the disinflationary move that has markets revisiting those expectations

  

Source: Raymond James as of 02.14.2024

 

Dave: Goods reflect a far heavier piece of the S&P 500 than they do in the service-heavy US economy

 

Data as of Jan 2024

 

Dave: No surprise but money is following the hottest sector of the market

 

Source: Strategas as of February 2024

 

Beckham: We know shelter has been sticky in the inflation measures, with investors continuing to own more of the market than in the past

 

Data as of January 2024

 

Beckham: with investors gradually crowding individuals out of the starter home market

 

Data as of January 2024

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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