Can the Fed Really Pivot?

Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate of 2.5%. We believe that more hikes will be needed to tame inflation, which helps explain why...
Q2 Recap and Chart Book

Q2 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...

The Market in Pictures, July 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   JL: History would indicate that the end of Fed tightening is a ways off   Data as of 07.06.22     Dave: Q2 earnings results may hold the...

Will the Fed Flip?

Powell Pivot or Powell Plunge… Which is It? The Fed’s aggressive tightening over the last 3 months has been a vicious attempt to regain their credibility after insisting inflation was merely transitory for all of 2021 + the first quarter of ‘22. In turn, for their...

The Market in Pictures, July 8

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   Dave: denominator a lot bigger but this bear is no joke, $14 trillion equity lost on paper   Source: Strategas as of 7/6/22     JL: 2022...