by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Market Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed funds rate (3.63%). Typically, you only see the 2 year this far above the fed funds rate when the...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 12, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index was a tad higher, from 2.39% to 2.43%, while the core slipped a bit from 2.51% to 2.47%. Food...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 13, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed has reduced its policy rate, the yield curve has steepened due to the front end declining while...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 30, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
January FOMC The Fed held its policy rate in the 3.5-3.75% range earlier this week, largely as expected. The vote was 10-2, where Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a -25bp reduction (Bowman did not dissent). The Fed noted better growth and “some...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 15, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Another Cool-ish Inflation Report The CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y in Dec. The core (ex-food & energy) measure was +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Source: Stifel as of 01.13.2026 Details of the report: Transportation services prices were flat, despite a...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 31, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
On their own, bonds have been better in 2025 than in recent years. Capital appreciation across the complex may be limited from here, but the bigger story is the support this environment can lend to overall economic conditions. A few key themes that are emerging…...
