by John Luke Tyner | Sep 19, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The debate between 25 or 50bps has been settled. It appears that markets strong-armed the Fed to front-load their first cut, where today they cut the funds rate by 50bps. This moved the target rate range from 5.25% – 5.50% to 4.75% – 5.00%. The updated...
by John Luke Tyner | Sep 11, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
September 11th We take a moment at Aptus today to remember the lives lost on this tragic day 23 years ago. We are grateful for the men and women who make the enormous sacrifice to keep our nation safe. Never forget! August CPI Update This morning U.S....
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 23, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Rate Cut Expectations All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing in ~1.25 cuts (roughly 31bps), basically a 25bps cut. Over the past weeks, we’ve bounced...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 9, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
We continue to believe the first Fed rate cut will be in September and this move will likely start a sequence of cuts. With that being said, we don’t see the case for a jumbo -50bp cut. The Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August deserves special attention for...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 1, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in September was a certainty. They did make some substantive changes to the statement...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 26, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Real Rates… Was the Post-GFC Period the Anomaly? The current real rate (interest rate adjusted for inflation) sits around 2.93%, which is the highest level since 2007. However, the post-financial crisis real rate period, shown in red, was not a “normal” period....
