by John Luke Tyner | Apr 25, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The flexible components of core CPI have been in deflationary territory over the past year (blue line in the chart below). The stickier components of core CPI, however, are still running well above their pre-pandemic average (orange line). Source: Bianco as of...
by Brian Jacobs | Apr 18, 2024 | Blog, Bonds, Investment Concepts
For decades, investors have treated bonds as a cornerstone of portfolio diversification, largely based on their performance during the late 20th century. From the early 2000s and through the 2010s, the often-negative correlation between stocks and bonds provided a...
by John Luke Tyner | Apr 11, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month. Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February. Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2024 March CPI: Headline: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY: Headline:...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Treasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is uncharted territory. It was ironic that Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 21, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC voted unanimously to leave their benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Source: Bloomberg as of 03.20.2024 The big surprise was the willingness of the Fed to maintain their projection for 3 rate cuts in 2024 even on the back...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 13, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Stabilizing Above 3% The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” gauge slowed to 0.47% on the month, down from a red-hot 0.85% in January. The data is...
