Curve Inversions and Lots of Movement

The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...

Rearview to Windshield, July 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   The U.S. Officially Entered into a Bear Market: The S&P 500 has officially entered a bear market, marking the 27th bear market since 1929 (20%+ peak-to-trough decline without a 20% rally). Historically, bear markets have...

The Market in Pictures, June 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   JL: by any measure, the inflation picture is different than the past two decades  Source: PGM Global as of 6/14/2022   Dave: heading for only the...

The Market in Pictures, June 10

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   1) JD: this stayed on the “anti-correlation” side for a few years but 2022 has kicked off another red/high correlation period   ...

The Market in Pictures, June 3

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   Dave: market selloffs of the past decade have repriced equities to mid-teens PE ratios. This one not in that range yet, at least on a trailing basis...

Well, QT is Finally Upon Us

We are beginning a new regime as the Fed moves to reduce the size of its balance sheet which has grown to nearly $9 Trillion. Since March 2020, the Fed has made more than $4T in bond purchases. Now, to fight inflation, the Fed will begin to let some of their bonds...