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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2026-05-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2026 Earnings RecapThe #1 question that I’ve been getting: Why is the S&P 500 Rallying? As I’ve said, simply put, there’s a profitability boom. “Boom” in EPS beats: 85% of S&P 500 f2026-05-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from rate expectations to inflatio2026-05-14 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, May 2026Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.38% in April after rising 0.20% in March. The Year over Year (YoY) Core rose from 2.60% to 2.74%. Headline CPI was up 0.64% on the he2026-05-13 · Investment ConceptsPortfolio Design: Do You Want a Decorator or an Architect?Most portfolios are decorated. Fewer are built by an architect. The difference shows up in the storm. A decorator works the surface. They pick what looks good in the curr2026-05-08 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The SpaceX IPOIPO investors are high-fiving right now with 2026 shaping up to be a record year for public offerings. We’ve fielded a lot of questions in regard to the SpaceX IPO, so I 2026-05-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 8Our team parses a vast amount of research daily to identify the signals that truly matter. This week’s selection highlights a stellar start to the earnings season, the de2026-05-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2026Patience Remains an Investor’s Best Characteristic: The market experienced a powerful, broad-based rally throughout April 2026, marking one of the strongest monthly perfo2026-05-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a stellar earnings season to 2026-04-30 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2026 EarningsI thought the old saying was: “Markets fall like an elevator, but rise like an escalator“, but I guess it’s the opposite as of late. In 2026, the market had its fastest r2026-04-27 · Investment ConceptsPrediction Markets : Expensive Guessing?A reporter from Investment News reached out recently to ask about prediction markets after seeing my previous post, Structure Over Bets: How You’re Built Matters More Tha2026-04-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 24Our research team parses vast amounts of data daily to identify the signals that truly matter. This week’s selection highlights a concentrated equity rally, the resilienc2026-04-22 · Bonds & RatesWarsh Faces the SenatePresident Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, appeared before the US Senate seeking ultimate approval to be named the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. While the US President 2026-04-17 · Market UpdatesGetting More ShotsOriginally a Content Hub post on Feb 4, 2026… Things are often made more complicated than they need to be. Take basketball as an example. Modern basketball analytics have2026-04-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 17Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from a historic equity surge again2026-04-10 · Investment ConceptsStructure Over Bets: How You’re Built Matters More Than What You’re PredictingInvestors constantly ask us about the macro environment. Whether it is a spike in energy prices, a shift in interest rates, or a headline about geopolitical tension, the 2026-04-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations during one of the more complex backdrops in recent memor2026-04-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2026Quarter Market Recap – A Resilient Market: Domestic and International markets were not a “safe space” for the risk-averse investors in Q1 2026. The quarter was defined by2026-04-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from 5% pullbacks to equity valuat2026-03-27 · Bonds & RatesLooking for Clarity in BondsMarket Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed fun2026-03-27 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 27Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful of charts we think are good summations of investor activity, from the anatomy of market pullbac2026-03-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2025 Earnings RecapHere’s the big story in my mind: the S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are climbing, but this optimistic trend might be a bit of a “smoke screen.” Most of those2026-03-20 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, March 20Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market drawdowns to rate cut expec2026-03-18 · Investment ConceptsThe Private Credit Liquidity Trap: When Fundamentals Don’t MatterFor years, private credit was the Golden Child of the alternative investment world. It offered higher yields, marketed lower volatility, and pitched a sense of security t2026-03-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musing: The Importance of StructureWhen many things are happening in the world, like right now, remember to keep things in perspective: 1) We don’t know what we don’t know – that’s OK, and 2) The importanc2026-03-13 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, March 13Our research team analyzes daily data to identify essential market signals, and this week’s selections highlight market uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, AI’s impact on2026-03-12 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, March 2026February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index2026-03-06 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, March 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from energy to AI, index movement vs. i2026-03-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Citrini!!!I’ll cover 2 topics in this Musing: 1) Iran, and 2) Citrini. I’ve been asked about the Citrini report several times over the past few days, so I wanted to address those q2026-03-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2026Market Recap → A Theme of Disintermediation: Headline returns for the index remained somewhat muted during February; however, underneath the hood from a single stock stan2026-03-03 · Investment ConceptsThe Productivity Miracle You Need to CaptureTechnology is deflationary. While we have views you could argue with, this isn’t one of them. For example, the flat-screen TV you bought for $3,000 twenty years ago now c2026-02-27 · Investment ConceptsBuffered ETFs Replacing Cash?With trillions of dollars currently sitting in money market funds, many investors are asking: “Is there a better way to earn a return without the stomach-churning volatil2026-02-27 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, February 27Our team continuously monitors a broad spectrum of market research to identify the trends shaping the current landscape. This week’s selection highlights a fascinating pe2026-02-26 · Investment ConceptsBox Spreads: An Opportunity to Save Clients on Interest and TaxesMost financial planning conversations start on the asset side of the client’s balance sheet…how to invest, how to diversify, and how to manage risk. But their liabilities2026-02-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Market Will Continue to Have a Troll TollLast week was supposed to be a quiet, short week; it was anything but. Cue Friday, February 20th: 1) SCOTUS Tariff decision (deemed illegal), 2) Core PCE (higher than exp2026-02-20 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, February 20Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings and divergent reactions, 2026-02-18 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Warsh-ing Your Hands of Jerome PowellThis musing is basically a 2:1 special. In the opening monologue, let’s talk about what’s going on underneath the hood of the market, then we’ll get to the Kevin Warsh no2026-02-13 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, February 2026Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed h2026-02-13 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, February 13Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from a choppy S&P 500 to wild indiv2026-02-10 · Investment ConceptsThe Silent Performance Killer: Why Portfolios Are Leaking AlphaAt Aptus, we are obsessed with the “math of investment”—from drawdown management to the nuances of the CAPE ratio. But for the select circle of advisors we partner with, 2026-02-06 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, February 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market rotation and a broadening e2026-02-04 · Market UpdatesSimple FormulasThings are often made more complicated than they need to be. Take basketball as an example. Modern basketball analytics have created a whole new language within the sport2026-02-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2026Market Recap → A Month of Headline Digestion: The theme of January is perhaps best captured in how the black swan events that cropped up— Venezuela, Japan, Greenland—were2026-01-30 · Bonds & RatesBig Week at the FOMCJanuary FOMC The Fed held its policy rate in the 3.5-3.75% range earlier this week, largely as expected. The vote was 10-2, where Governors Miran and Waller dissented in 2026-01-30 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, January 30Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market expectations to corporate f2026-01-26 · Investment ConceptsThe Case for Getting Bored: In Defense of Lower Volatility EquitiesEquity markets have recently been dominated by the “Magnificent” few and a relentless bid for high-beta tech. Suggesting that lower volatility stocks can retain their doc2026-01-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2025 Earnings PreviewThe pace of change these days, whether it’s technology or geopolitics, is absolutely stunning: Maduro, Greenland, Venezuela, Lisa Cook, Powell, etc. The factors, the stoc2026-01-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, January 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from broadening attempts to profitabili2026-01-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, January 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market expectations to corporate f2026-01-15 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, January 2026Another Cool-ish Inflation Report The CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y in Dec. The core (ex-food & energy) measure was +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Source: Stifel as of 01.2026-01-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, January 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market expectations to corporate f2026-01-07 · Market UpdatesDriving Higher CAGRs“CAGR” – we say that a lot, and for good reason. It stands for Compounded Annual Growth Rate. It’s how your wealth grows. Higher CAGR = Higher terminal wealth. Aptus’ foc2026-01-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2026Market Recap December 2025: U.S. and global equities posted solid full-year gains in 2025, but the ride was much choppier than the headline returns suggest, with multiple2026-01-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, January 2Happy New Year. As we turn the page to 2026, the market landscape is a study in contrasts. Consumers who feel poor, but spend big. A tech sector that has reached a histor2025-12-31 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, December 2025On their own, bonds have been better in 2025 than in recent years. Capital appreciation across the complex may be limited from here, but the bigger story is the support t2025-12-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, December 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from a good run to playing catch-up, st2025-12-26 · Market UpdatesTimeWhen I was a kid, I assumed tomorrow would look like today. Mom, Dad, and my brothers all together under one roof. Sure, I thought about the future, but I just kinda thou2025-12-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market In Pictures, December 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from manager struggles to large cap ear2025-12-18 · Investment ConceptsUnbundling Aggregate Bonds: How a 0.2% Allocation May Be Costing Your Clients ThousandsBack in February, we wrote about a common tax mistake investors make with their fixed income allocations: ignoring the state tax benefits of Treasuries. A simple breakout2025-12-17 · Market UpdatesAptus Market Outlook: Be an American PsychoAs one of the most searing dissections of 1980s yuppie culture, American Psycho has become a movie with a cult following, as it depicts Patrick Bateman’s journey as a par2025-12-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from Mag 7 to the rest, FOMC plans and

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