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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2025-12-11 · Bonds & RatesDecember FOMC: A Holiday TreatThe FOMC release was less hawkish than feared (milkshake) with a dovish presser (cherry on top). We view December 10th’s move as a risk management cut given a slowing job2025-12-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rotating leaders to strong earning2025-12-03 · Market UpdatesTimeWhen I was a kid, I assumed tomorrow would look like today. Mom, Dad, and my brothers all together under one roof. Sure, I thought about the future, but I just kinda thou2025-12-02 · Investment ConceptsDoes a 50-Year Mortgage Help? Not Without Lower Rates.As affordability pressures rise, leaders are proposing the idea of ultra-long mortgages, including 50-year terms, to entice buyers. The pitch sounds intuitive: stretch th2025-12-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2025Market Recap November 2025: November wrapped up with a choppy, but ultimately modest month for U.S. equities, as a late-month rally helped the S&P 500 claw back from 2025-11-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2025 Earnings ReviewHappy Thanksgiving! At the Wagner household, Arlo Guthrie’s 1967 20′ masterpiece, Alice’s Restaurant, is viewed as a Thanksgiving fan favorite, likely because I’m the onl2025-11-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from market selloffs to winners and los2025-11-21 · Investment ConceptsFive Reasons Retail Should Be Wary of Private Credit (Especially Retirement Plans)Private credit has become the industry’s favorite shiny object, recently surpassing the entire market for listed high-yield corporate bonds with $1.7 trillion in assets p2025-11-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from November weakness to AI impact, to2025-11-17 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, November 2025Fewer Cuts? The Fed funds futures market now shows a 48% chance of a December rate cut, down from 100% on the day of the October Fed meeting. We saw a Bloomberg News head2025-11-14 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Furloughing the TariffsBye weeks are huge. The Cincinnati Bengals had a bye week this past weekend; their defense needed it, our tailgate needed it, and I needed it. But, one of the biggest que2025-11-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings vs. the economy, inflatio2025-11-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from an amazing run for low quality/hig2025-11-06 · Investment ConceptsThe Pain of End-of-Year Mutual Fund DistributionsWhy ETFs Deserve the Flow of New Money Mutual funds distribute gains that investors may not have realized themselves ETFs can defer or avoid those gains through in-kind r2025-11-04 · Market UpdatesWhere Do You Buy Your Cheerios?Top three cereals of all time, in no order: Feel free to disagree, but those are my GOATs when it comes to cereal. What’s not in my top three? Cheerios. While not my favo2025-11-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2025Market Recap October 2025: The seasonals did not seasonal, as a historically known weak month, had strong returns for risk assets. In October 2025, the U.S. stock market 2025-10-31 · Bonds & RatesFOMC Hedges a BitAs expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate 25bps on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive rate reduction this year and now markin2025-10-31 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 31Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from an amazing run in stocks to those 2025-10-31 · Investment ConceptsThe Risk of Owning High Yield at Current SpreadsAt today’s levels, we think high-yield credit offers little value to investors. The yield of the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index sits at just 2.6% above Treasur2025-10-24 · Bonds & RatesAnother All Clear for Rate CutsThe September CPI report, delayed for more than two weeks, was finally released this morning. The September Inflation data is an important number used to calculate the 202025-10-24 · Investment ConceptsThe Case for Incorporating TrendAs our resident “trend guy,” I sometimes get pulled into conversations with advisors about trend-following strategies. While we as a firm are strictly strategic at the al2025-10-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 24Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from strength expanding to earnings dom2025-10-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 17Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from volatility waking up to single sto2025-10-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2025 Earnings PreviewWith earnings season beginning this morning, I decided to write our Q3 2025 Earnings Preview on a flight to Omaha. And while heading to this special investment city, it’s2025-10-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from money supply to inflation and rate2025-10-09 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Leave the Government Shutdown Out of Your PortfolioBefore I start, I’ve continued to receive a lot of questions regarding the U.S. v. International debate. One of the main rules of Wall Street is that attitude follows per2025-10-04 · Investment ConceptsWhat’s Old is NewWe are witnessing a monetary regime change. I’m not sure investors fully appreciate what that means. I know we talk about a lot of stuff, but I’m focused on this single c2025-10-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2025Market Recap September 2025 – Life Certainly Looks Like Easy Street in the Equity Markets: It’s always easier when the markets are going up. Equities have continued to pr2025-10-03 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 3Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from buzzy stocks to profit margins, to2025-09-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from buzzy stocks to profit margins, to2025-09-26 · Bonds & RatesThe State of Bonds Entering Q4Tug of War: Goods vs Services Inflation Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes. Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25. As a wh2025-09-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from FOMC outlooks to inflation and rat2025-09-18 · Bonds & RatesSeptember 2025 FOMC: A Risk Management CutThe Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected by a quarter point, to a stated range of 4.0-4.25%. This marks 125 bps in reductions since initiating the cutting cycle2025-09-17 · Investment ConceptsTurning $1.85 in Taxes Into a Nickel (for the Same Distribution)Some investors still view dividends and coupons as more “real” than selling shares for cash. That made sense decades ago, when trading costs were high. Today, transaction2025-09-12 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, September 2025CPI came in a touch hotter than expected in August, with the headline rising 0.382%, rounding to 0.4%, and the core rising 0.346%, rounding down to 0.3%. The consensus wa2025-09-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from inflation to rates, the economy an2025-09-08 · Investment ConceptsETFs Changed the Game for Equities. Now It’s Time for Fixed Income.Over the past two decades, ETFs have become the vehicle of choice for investors. They are liquid, transparent, low-cost, and viewed (often correctly) as highly tax-effici2025-09-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Is there Staying Power in Stablecoins?We’re going to do a new style of the Aptus Musings today; it’s going to be a bit more educational. I had a conversation a few weeks ago with a friend and realized that I 2025-09-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from jobs and the economy to the FOMC a2025-09-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2025Market Recap – August 2025: The market continued its monthly gain streak, as August had every single week during the month have a positive return. The market has been in 2025-08-29 · Process PapersSeeking Higher After-Tax Returns: A Smarter Way to Compound WealthInvestors love to talk about performance. Advisors love to show charts. But the number that matters most is the return clients actually capture, both pre-tax and after-ta2025-08-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from small-cap strength to earnings sea2025-08-25 · Bonds & RatesOpportunity in Municipal Bonds?We wanted to put together a note to discuss the recent underperformance of municipal bonds relative to their taxable brethren (MUB vs AGG, shown below). Tax-free bonds ha2025-08-22 · Bonds & RatesNotes from Jackson HoleFed Chairman Jay Powell finally delivered his long-anticipated address to leading economists and academics. A few quotes that caught our attention, not to mention the mar2025-08-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from rate-cutting regimes to earnings s2025-08-21 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2025 Earnings ReviewThe big debate in the final weeks of Summer is whether the delayed bite of the Administration’s trade and tariff policy will matter more for financial markets than the of2025-08-20 · Investment ConceptsHigher Yield, or Just Higher Taxes?If you’re on any form of social media, you’re probably seeing headlines about funds boasting “30 percent yields” and retail investors rushing in. There are even Reddit co2025-08-15 · Bonds & RatesAugust Inflation: Firm But Tariff Categories Better than FearedHeadline CPI rose 0.20% in July, in line with economists’ expectations. The YoY rate was unchanged at 2.7%. After two warmer months, food prices inched up just 0.05%. Ene2025-08-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from inflation to dispersion, from wall2025-08-14 · Investment ConceptsIgnore the Margin Debt AlarmEvery so often, margin debt headlines resurface as a supposed warning sign for the stock market. The latest iteration: U.S. margin balances have crossed one trillion doll2025-08-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 8Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings hits/misses and Big Tech 2025-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2025Market Recap – July 2025: July was a great month for risk assets. Historically speaking, when July is a good performance month, it tends to be a strong signal for the rem2025-08-04 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: A Musing of MusingsI’m a big believer that in this market, whatever narrative you go looking for, you’ll find it. It’s very rare to find data that is always one-sided and not conflicting. A2025-08-04 · Market UpdatesArming Yourself Against Dollar DebasementThis month’s post is designed to elaborate on our general thinking, but more specifically, on the release of our Purchasing Power Protection Sleeve (‘PPP’), which include2025-08-01 · Investment ConceptsRates May Not Be the Only Housing Issue, But They Can Be a SolutionBloomberg’s latest piece on the housing market (“U.S. Real Estate Market: High Prices, Mortgage Rates Hamper Spring Home Selling”) captured the state of the housing marke2025-08-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from Fed debates to mixed economic data2025-07-31 · Bonds & RatesFOMC : Searching for the Neutral RateThe Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller disse2025-07-25 · Investment ConceptsOptions Case Study: Benefits of Actively Managed Shorter Term Covered CallsWith the recent increase in the use of option strategies around concentrated stock positions, we wanted to measure the benefits of using shorter-tenure options that are a2025-07-25 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 25Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from junk stocks to megacaps, to housin2025-07-18 · Bonds & RatesStrong Sales, Weak InflationCore CPI came in softer than expected for the 5th straight month: 0.2%, month over month (MoM) and 2.9% year over year (YoY). The YoY number did tick up slightly given th

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