February 2023 CPI Update

Consumer prices rose in February by the most in 5 months, although the move was roughly in line with expectations. Headline CPI number moved lower to 6.0% YoY as the February 0.4% print replaced last year’s 0.7% print.   Source: Bianco. As of 3/14/23.   Next...

The Market in Pictures, February 24

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brad: The early 2023 rally brought beta all the way back from the depths of 2022 underperformance   Data...

The Market in Pictures, February 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: It’s been awhile since 5% rates were an option for investors, things looked different back...

Market Finally Getting the Point?

The blue line below is what the Fed is communicating per their DOT plot, on the terminal rate going to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The orange line is yesterday’s Fed Funds curve (following CPI). The market expectations for the Fed Funds rate is finally rising to the...

Higher For Longer

Another Stubborn CPI Report Likely Pressures Fed to Maintain Hikes   The BLS’s latest inflation figures published this morning showed consumer prices rose 6.4% Y/Y in January, slightly higher than consensus. From a high-level view  it was a fairly status quo...