CPI: Shelter Costs Remain Uncomfortably High

Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts. January CPI MoM Headline: +0.3% (Exp: +0.2%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY Headline: +3.1% (Exp: +2.9%)...

December CPI: Shelter Prices Still the Driver

The U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y).   Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024   Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. Core inflation is being aided by...

Will the Dovish Pivot Stick?

The shift in expectations for future interest rates has become the top narrative of markets. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, markets were thrilled to see the Fed add rate cuts to their Dot plot (SEP Projections) and talk about the potential for rate cuts....

The Market in Pictures, December 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The story of this week was the Fed, and how far out in front the market is in terms of rate cuts...

QT Still On But Conditions Have Eased

Last week, the CPI & PPI print both came in weaker than expected. The market responded favorably with stocks up and yields dropping. The bigger change in our minds was the drop in forward interest rate expectations where the market continues to price a lower...