by John Luke Tyner | Mar 13, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Stabilizing Above 3% The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” gauge slowed to 0.47% on the month, down from a red-hot 0.85% in January. The data is...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 14, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Consumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts. January CPI MoM Headline: +0.3% (Exp: +0.2%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY Headline: +3.1% (Exp: +2.9%)...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 12, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y). Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024 Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. Core inflation is being aided by...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The shift in expectations for future interest rates has become the top narrative of markets. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, markets were thrilled to see the Fed add rate cuts to their Dot plot (SEP Projections) and talk about the potential for rate cuts....
by Aptus PM Team | Dec 15, 2023 | Blog, Charts
Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The story of this week was the Fed, and how far out in front the market is in terms of rate cuts...
