The Market in Pictures, October 20

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: September retail sales were too hot for the bond market’s liking, with the weakness spilling...

The Market in Pictures, September 22

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn’t moved, but a few members have moved their...

The Market in Pictures, September 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: September is famous for being the weakest month for stocks, with the 2nd half being the most...

Rate Hikes Working, No Cuts Ahead

Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotter pace than the prior two months.  Headline CPI: +0.6% (Consensus Expectations: +0.6%) Core CPI:...

Market Still Undershooting Fed Communication

Global central bankers will gather later this month in Jackson Hole, WY for their annual meeting. We anticipate markets will seek to understand Powell’s desire to push back on market pricing that the Fed will cut its key rate to around 4% by January 2025 from its...