Rate Hikes Working, No Cuts Ahead

Headline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotter pace than the prior two months.  Headline CPI: +0.6% (Consensus Expectations: +0.6%) Core CPI:...

Market Still Undershooting Fed Communication

Global central bankers will gather later this month in Jackson Hole, WY for their annual meeting. We anticipate markets will seek to understand Powell’s desire to push back on market pricing that the Fed will cut its key rate to around 4% by January 2025 from its...

The Market in Pictures, August 11

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brad: Most Q2 earnings are out, and it’s generally been better-than-expected   Source: Strategas as...

August 2023 CPI: Progress Continues

The July CPI came out to be another soft report and points to further moderation in inflation. Headline CPI increased by 0.2% MoM (0.167% unrounded), which resulted in the YoY rate increasing two-tenths to 3.2% as base effects were less favorable than last month. For...

Yields Rising, and a Curveball!

Rise in Interest Income is Helping Buoy the Consumer   The increase in interest rates over the last 15-18 months has made it is more expensive to borrow money but on the flip side, they have higher yielding options to put cash to work.   Source: WSJ as of...