May FOMC: A Pause for Thought

→ FED SAYS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTLOOK HAS ‘INCREASED FURTHER’ → FED: RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INFLATION HAVE RISEN → FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE   Source: Bloomberg as of 05.7.2025   The Fed has cut the fed funds...

Around the Bond Market, April 2025

President Trump Critiques the Fed   Earlier this week, President Trump indicated he thinks the Fed should be “early, or on time” cutting rates, but not “too late,” adding it is “a perfect time to lower the rate.” Pressed by a reporter asking if the President has the...

FOMC is Waiting for Clarity, Too

Fed Waiting, Like the Rest of Us   The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week, deciding to leave the reserve rate unchanged as expected (a unanimous decision amongst voters). The Fed’s so-called “dot plot,” which projects participants’ expectations...

Dueling Mandates in Play for FOMC

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Shows First Signs of GDP Sputtering in Several Years   The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 came in at -2.8% on March 3, down from -1.5% on February 28. Following releases from...