Q2 Recap and Chart Book

Q2 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...

Will the Fed Flip?

Powell Pivot or Powell Plunge… Which is It? The Fed’s aggressive tightening over the last 3 months has been a vicious attempt to regain their credibility after insisting inflation was merely transitory for all of 2021 + the first quarter of ‘22. In turn, for their...

Soft or Hard Landing… Which is It?

A Central Bank’s place in an economy is to be the behind-the-scenes moderator of financial conditions. Here in the US, they specifically have two jobs: price stability and full employment. Their job is to step into the mix when financial conditions overly...

Aptus Musings: Fed Up With Inflation

Obviously, yesterday’s news regarding the market was all about the Fed. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed very unrealistic that the market would get a 75bp hike in June. Yet, due to Friday’s CPI report and a “mysterious” WSJ article on Monday, it created an environment...

Well, QT is Finally Upon Us

We are beginning a new regime as the Fed moves to reduce the size of its balance sheet which has grown to nearly $9 Trillion. Since March 2020, the Fed has made more than $4T in bond purchases. Now, to fight inflation, the Fed will begin to let some of their bonds...