by John Luke Tyner | Aug 1, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in September was a certainty. They did make some substantive changes to the statement...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 26, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Real Rates… Was the Post-GFC Period the Anomaly? The current real rate (interest rate adjusted for inflation) sits around 2.93%, which is the highest level since 2007. However, the post-financial crisis real rate period, shown in red, was not a “normal” period....
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 13, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
We see today’s print to be one of the first encouraging inflation prints for the Fed. The broader softness across components could point to a continuation of the slowing inflation data. May Core CPI came at 0.163% M/M (2% annualized), which was well below estimates....
by Aptus PM Team | Mar 22, 2024 | Blog, Charts
Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The market is finally in gear with the FOMC’s actual plans Source: Bianco as of...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 21, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC voted unanimously to leave their benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Source: Bloomberg as of 03.20.2024 The big surprise was the willingness of the Fed to maintain their projection for 3 rate cuts in 2024 even on the back...
