Update on Rate Cut Expectations

Fed expectations moved drastically last week. On Friday, November 24, markets were pricing in three cuts in 2024, with the first in June (orange). By Friday, December 1, the market was pricing in five cuts in 2024, starting around April (blue).   Source: Bianco...

Rearview to Windshield, December 2023

November ’23 Market Recap: After a 20% drawdown in many stocks between July and October, equities staged an impressive rebound in November thanks to the sharp reversal in interest rates. A good portion of this reversal was due to the pricing of a much more...

Bond Bounce: Sustainable?

Last week brought a substantial rally in bonds following a brutal three-month span of higher rates. There are a couple of reasons we can point to for the move lower in rates: The US Treasury cut back slightly on the amount of long-term bonds it’s planning to auction,...

FOMC Pause, For Now

As broadly expected, the Fed left their target Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The pause from July to November marks the longest period without an increase since the liftoff in March of 2022. Powell did leave the door open for further tightening,...