Are We Hitting an Inflation Trifecta?

Every so often, you see a shift in the data that lines up with a transitional moment; this week’s developments could be that moment. We just had three instances that could change the “imminent Fed Hikes” narrative: a) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony on Capitol...

QT Still On But Conditions Have Eased

Last week, the CPI & PPI print both came in weaker than expected. The market responded favorably with stocks up and yields dropping. The bigger change in our minds was the drop in forward interest rate expectations where the market continues to price a lower...

Inflation Takeaways: PPI/CPI

August PPI and CPI and Fed Survey Update… QE Taper Coming late ‘21   Boy did we get the tale of two reports from the August inflation data. The PPI report was modestly higher than expectations whereas the CPI report was modestly lower… so which one is right?...