Jackson Hole for Now, What About DC?

Rate Cut Expectations   All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing in ~1.25 cuts (roughly 31bps), basically a 25bps cut. Over the past weeks, we’ve bounced...

The Market in Pictures, August 16

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: The sharp rise in daily volatility came after 18 months of extremely subdued movement in equity indices...

The Market in Pictures, August 2

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: It only took a week for markets to go from an 11% chance to a 72% chance of 50 bps of rate cuts...

July FOMC: No Change But September Likely

As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in September was a certainty. They did make some substantive changes to the statement...