Who is Wrong About Rates?

Another Sizable Hike   The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...

The Market in Pictures, July 29

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   Dave: The start of earnings season was a story of “not bad”, with lower price movement than usual for both hits and misses…   Source:...

Can the Fed Really Pivot?

Another Month, Another (BIG) Hike. Next Wednesday, July 27th, the Fed is expected to hike 75bps and bring their overnight target up to the FOMC’s consensus neutral rate of 2.5%. We believe that more hikes will be needed to tame inflation, which helps explain why...

The Market in Pictures, July 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   JL: History would indicate that the end of Fed tightening is a ways off   Data as of 07.06.22     Dave: Q2 earnings results may hold the...

Curve Inversions and Lots of Movement

The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...