The Market in Pictures, February 7

by | Feb 7, 2025 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers to government spending and comparisons of foreign markets to ours. Enjoy!

 

Dave: Post-DeepSeek, the focus on tech earnings calls is capital spending plans. Megacap earnings calls made it clear it’s only going higher

 

Source: Bernstein as of 02.07.2025

 

 

Joseph: and the total numbers across this group are mind-boggling

 

 

 

Brian: Artificial intelligence (AI) is obviously a specific focus of massive funding in the US and abroad

 

Data as of March 2024

 

 

Beckham: but additional spending plans across the economy have jumped higher since the election

 

Data as of January 2025

 

 

John Luke: Inflation measures are settling into a range just above 3%

 

Data as of January 2025

 

 

Brian: though consumer expectations are detaching themselves to the upside

 

Data as of 02.07.2025

 

 

Joseph: Expectations by market participants generally follow along with the price of crude

 

Data as of 02.04.2025

 

 

John Luke: and 10-Year Treasuries have historically kept a tight relationship with nominal growth

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 02.05.2025

 

 

Brett: Tariffs can impact some state economies more than others

 

Data as of December 2024

 

  

Dave: but aren’t as impactful to S&P 500 earnings

 

Source: Strategas as of 02.04.2025

 

 

John Luke: Stories are recycled daily about the weight carried by Mag 7 stocks, but the fundamentals have justified the dominance

 

Source: Advisor Perspectives as of 01.30.2025

 

 

Brad: and past episodes of high concentration have had little impact on future index returns

 

 

 

Arch: The past few months have shown a separation in employment between companies focused on services vs. goods

 

Data as of 02.07.2025

 

 

John Luke: and overall, the jobs situation would seem to keep the Fed in “wait and see” mode

 

Data as of 02.07.2025

 

 

Brad: It remains hard to justify overweighting foreign stocks, given relative US business performance

 

Data as of January 2025

 

 

John Luke: but the rise in debt will need to be monitored if it crowds out private enterprise

 

Data as of January 2025

 

These charts paint an evolving picture of where we’ve been and where we might go. As always, we’ll continue monitoring and interpreting the evidence to help navigate what’s ahead.

 

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

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