CPI Target Moved

The US government will change its CPI methodology beginning next month. Previously they had updated weights biennially using two years of expenditure data. So for last year, the 2019 and 2020 y/y %’s have been combined to form the “comp” against which y/y inflation...

The Market in Pictures, January 13

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Have we entered a new regime of how stocks and bonds interact?   Source: Strategas as of...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Q4 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...

December CPI In-Line

CPI was right on the screws with expectations at -0.1% on headline and +0.3% core. But the details do paint a picture of lingering pressures at the core. Core services rose by 0.5%, up from the 0.4% in November. Owners’ equivalent rent rose by 0.8%, the highest...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Fixed Income: 2022 Review + 2023 Preview

2022: Unprecedented in Modern Market History   For only the third year since 1926, both US stocks and bonds lost money (the other two occurrences were … 1931 and 1969. The 60/40 portfolio simply didn’t work. While this might not be new news, we believe it...