Rearview to Windshield, September 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   As the summer comes to a close, it’s worth looking back to Memorial Day for perspective.  Equities have been largely flattish and extremely volatile since late May, credit spreads have been flattish, bond yields have trended...

Rearview to Windshield, August 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   July 2022 Market Recap: The month of July was driven by better-than-feared earnings, economic data, and falling inflation expectations. The market spent most of June pricing in an earnings Armageddon that has yet to come to...

The “Idea in Real” Market

The market is learning that the economic cure of last year is now quickly becoming the cause for something else. The ramifications of unprecedented fiscal and monetary responses employed to combat a recession during the global pandemic should not come as a surprise to...

Curve Inversions and Lots of Movement

The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...

Rearview to Windshield, July 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   The U.S. Officially Entered into a Bear Market: The S&P 500 has officially entered a bear market, marking the 27th bear market since 1929 (20%+ peak-to-trough decline without a 20% rally). Historically, bear markets have...

The Market in Pictures, June 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   JL: by any measure, the inflation picture is different than the past two decades  Source: PGM Global as of 6/14/2022   Dave: heading for only the...