Rearview to Windshield, October 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   Can you Hear the Fed Now? September 2022 Market Recap: At the end of September, the Fed removed any remaining doubt about its commitment to getting inflation under control. As a result, both bonds and stocks sold off sharply....

Assessing the Downside

When we think about narratives surrounding slowing economic growth, our job as investors is to translate narrative into number. In other words, if the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, if the housing market gets sluggish, if unemployment starts to...

Rearview to Windshield, September 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   As the summer comes to a close, it’s worth looking back to Memorial Day for perspective.  Equities have been largely flattish and extremely volatile since late May, credit spreads have been flattish, bond yields have trended...

Rearview to Windshield, August 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   July 2022 Market Recap: The month of July was driven by better-than-feared earnings, economic data, and falling inflation expectations. The market spent most of June pricing in an earnings Armageddon that has yet to come to...

The “Idea in Real” Market

The market is learning that the economic cure of last year is now quickly becoming the cause for something else. The ramifications of unprecedented fiscal and monetary responses employed to combat a recession during the global pandemic should not come as a surprise to...

Curve Inversions and Lots of Movement

The Yield Curve Inverted… Again The yield curve has inverted temporarily several times this year, but it’s only been for a day or two and then bounced back to a more normal shape (front end lower than the long end). As the Fed continues to hike rates (raising rates at...