Risk vs Reward: NCAA Bracket Edition

The NCAA Tournament is not just an annual highlight of American sports betting—err, culture—but also a prime lesson in decision-making amidst uncertainty. And no, writing this is not just clever justification on my part to delve into bracket strategy while pretending...

The Market in Pictures, March 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Brett: Equity valuations had been tied to interest rates in this cycle, but they’ve separated in recent...

March CPI: Inflation Still Sticky

Inflation Stabilizing Above 3%   The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” gauge slowed to 0.47% on the month, down from a red-hot 0.85% in January. The data is...

The Market in Pictures, March 8

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Early-year strength in stocks has tended to lead to healthy performance   Source: Strategas as...

Rearview to Windshield, March 2024

February ‘24 Market Recap: Helped by better-than-expected earnings, the S&P 500 (+5.3% total return) clocked a fresh high in Feb. But just 26% of stocks outperformed the index, similar to recent months, and 45% of the index’s gain came from four stocks:...