November CPI: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The CPI report came in softer than expected again in November. Core saw the smallest increase since Aug 2021. Core goods were down -0.5% (weakest since April 2020) and core services rose by 0.4% (smallest increase since July of this year). Headline CPI was also below...

The Market in Pictures, December 9

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: It’s been a year of really high day-to-day volatility   Source: Strategas as of 12.07.2022...

Peak Funds Rate, For Longer

Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to:   Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal   How long will policy remain...

Rearview to Windshield, December 2022

November 2022 Market Recap: The S&P 500 bounce in November (+5.4%) occurred as the US yield curve inverted further as the 10 year treasury yields rallied. This is the second straight month of strong gains, as October returned +8.1%. It feels as if the market is...

The Market in Pictures, December 2

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   JL: This year stands alone in modern history, for its combination of stock / bond weakness   Data as...

Was that the Powell Pivot 2.0?

Powell’s comments and the market response yesterday were noteworthy. The equity market rose (SPX +3.05%) while bond yields rallied across the yield curve following Powell’s Brookings Institute presentation. The market was positioned for a hawkish speech and...