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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2025-02-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers 2025-02-12 · Bonds & RatesCPI Update: Fed on HoldCPI rose 0.5% in January, above the 0.3% gain expected and an uptick from a 0.4% increase in December. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.0%, a tenth of a percentage point hig2025-02-10 · Investment ConceptsLeveraged ETFs: The Hidden Costs of Volatility DragDaily leveraged ETFs aim to magnify the returns of an underlying asset or index, often by 2x or -2x the daily return. While appealing for short-term trading, their mechan2025-02-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Not So Tarif-Fying?We’re one month down, with 11 months to go and let me tell you, there was a lot to digest in January. Week 1: Rates moving off of a hard landing narrative due to a strong2025-02-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers 2025-02-06 · Bonds & RatesNot Relying on Help From FOMCFOMC Update The January FOMC meeting went as expected (no rate cut). Chairman Powell offered limited forward guidance, stating that “we’re meaningfully above” the neutral2025-02-05 · Market UpdatesLosing Money SafelyYou can let fear keep you out of risk assets (stocks), a lot of people do, but they are going higher with or without you. The show will go on. It must. There will be ups 2025-02-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2025Market Recap – January 2025: It was a very interesting month, as the market navigated a slew of headlines that, at first glance, seemed to be potential negative game chan2025-01-31 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: China’s DeepSeeking MissilesI’ve fielded a lot of questions about DeepSeek and its potential ramifications on the stock market – I’ll be the first to say that I am not a pro in the technical jargon 2025-01-31 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 31Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the week. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity, from AI panic to Fed plans to bull and di2025-01-30 · Investment ConceptsNever Go Full DegenSpeedman: In a weird way, I had to sort of just free myself up to believe that it was okay to be stupid or dumb. Lazarus: To be a moron. Speedman: Yeah. Lazarus: To be mo2025-01-24 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market: January 2025Progress on the Debt to GDP Ratios… Kinda The CBO, a non-partisan budget agency, updated its forecasts for the U.S. budget deficits for the next 10 years. The report show2025-01-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 24Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers 2025-01-22 · Investment ConceptsMeme Coins: Speculation vs. Real Wealth CreationCryptocurrency has transformed from a niche innovation into a cultural phenomenon, with Bitcoin emerging as the original and most widely recognized digital asset. In its 2025-01-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 17Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers 2025-01-15 · Investment ConceptsHow Do You Define Safe?Brian wrote a recent post that’s relevant to this month’s writeup. It’s worth a few minutes of your time as it provides perspective around how you should think about inve2025-01-10 · Bonds & Rates2025 Rate Cut OutlookThe market is currently pricing in 1.53 cuts for 2025 (Fed says 2). As we’ve said before, we believe the FOMC has gotten its rate closer to neutral. This positions them t2025-01-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity , from rate expectations to growth drivers 2025-01-07 · Investment ConceptsBetter Investing: Five Lessons from 2024 You Shouldn’t IgnoreAs we’ve closed the books on 2024, reflecting on the year’s investment landscape offers valuable insights for navigating what lies ahead. From identifying opportunities w2025-01-03 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 3Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Derek: The tre2025-01-03 · Investment ConceptsYou’ve Always Been an Options TraderFor many, the world of options can be daunting for those who feel that they do not have the right experience. Certainly, the terminology used by options traders can be co2025-01-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2025Market Recap – December 2024: The rally in stocks in 2023 was driven, mostly, by hope of market friendly events: The end of rate hikes and start of rate cuts, the economy2024-12-27 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 27Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: Infla2024-12-23 · Market UpdatesGiving ThanksThanksgiving is my wife’s favorite holiday, and because of that, we make the long trek to Cincinnati, Ohio every November. There are a number of traditions, but they all 2024-12-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Market Outlook December 2024The team discussed the firm’s outlook for 2025, including investment committee views on the economy, markets, and investment strategy. Key points The team is optimistic a2024-12-20 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 20Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Joseph: The FO2024-12-19 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: Buying TimeAs expected, the Fed cut rates for a third time this year (100bps total), reducing the range for the Federal Funds target to 4.25-4.50%. The Committee signaled a signific2024-12-18 · Market UpdatesMarket Outlook 2025: Airplane!Aptus Capital Market Outlook: Stocks for the Long Haul? Surely You Can’t Be Serious. I Am, and Don’t Call Me Shirley The movie Airplane! is sophomoric, obvious, predictab2024-12-13 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 13Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Governme2024-12-09 · Investment ConceptsBitcoin: Wealth Creation or Wealth Transfer?Bitcoin remains one of the most polarizing topics in finance. On one side, crypto enthusiasts celebrate its revolutionary potential; on the other, fundamental analysts ca2024-12-06 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: 2022 see2024-12-04 · Bonds & RatesPause Ahead in Rates and QT?Insurance Cut in December is Likely…Then a Pause The jobs forecast from Linkup, a leading provider of labor demand data to the capital markets, indicates a marked slowing2024-12-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2024Market Recap – November 2024: The market boasted its best month of the year, as market bulls believe that President-elect Donald Trump is the nominal GDP growth candidate2024-11-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: This 2024-11-27 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2024 Earnings RecapGiven the breadth of questions that I’ve received on President-elect Trump’s cabinet picks I thought I’d start with some commentary. In my opinion, the market is not poli2024-11-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Q3 earni2024-11-21 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, November 2024The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bp2024-11-20 · Investment ConceptsHousing Market and Affordability: A Closer Look at Today’s DynamicsThe housing market today is caught in a strange juxtaposition. While home prices and down payments are elevated in dollar terms, they remain within historical norms when 2024-11-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Stocks h2024-11-13 · Bonds & RatesHelping Clients Understand the Move in RatesMost of our pieces are meant to be read by advisors, but sometimes there are topics that will resonate just as deeply with your clients. Here's an example of one that cou2024-11-13 · Investment ConceptsUtilizing Volatility Expectations to Guide Risk TakingIn a recent post, Selling Puts as a Form of Risk Management, we explored using volatility indicators like the VIX to inform portfolio decisions. Building on that, this gu2024-11-11 · Investment ConceptsLearning Greek, with a Formula One TranslatorOptions can be a very challenging concept for investors to get their minds around, particularly given some of the complex math involved in trading and hedging positions. 2024-11-08 · Bonds & RatesLong Term Rates Diverging From Fed PolicyAs expected, the Fed opted to cut rates by 25bps in November, taking the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Marking now the second consecutive reduction in 2024-11-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 8Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brian: We’re i2024-11-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: It’s OverIt’s over. But, in a way…it has only just begun. Election Superlatives: 9 out of the past 10 elections, the results have yielded a situation where power flipped parties. 2024-11-04 · Market UpdatesPortfolio Reminder: Election 2024It’s the weekend before the election and I want this month’s note to serve as a quick reminder of What Matters. The linked post is from July of this year and we wouldn’t 2024-11-01 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Election 2024Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 marked their last major correction low roughly one year ago (10/27/2023) with each now in the top decile of their historical 12-mont2024-11-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2024Market Recap – October 2024: Broad markets were down during October, but that should not be a surprise to investors, as it tends to be the worst month in an election year2024-11-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Arch: Are mega2024-10-25 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 25Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Joseph: Bonds 2024-10-24 · Bonds & RatesRate Talk into the ElectionThe 10-year Treasury yield is up ~60 bps from the YTD lows seen just prior to the 50bp Fed cut on September 16. The widespread view is that the spike in rates is due to a2024-10-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2024 Earnings PreviewWe’ve continued to speak to the fact that the market is witnessing a “right tail” event, as the S&P 500 is +40%+ since the recent market bottom of 10/27/2023. Yet, ri2024-10-22 · Investment ConceptsETFs as Hedge Funds 2.0: A Better Way to Capture Beta and Alpha?Hedge funds have long been a polarizing topic in investing. Though they date back to the mid-20th century, they’ve come to represent sophisticated strategies often associ2024-10-18 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 18Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: This 2024-10-14 · Investment ConceptsSitting Dead Red: Investing When The Count Is In Your Favor“This guy is throwing a two-hit shutout and he’s shaking me off. You believe that? Charlie here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.” – Bull Durham (1982024-10-11 · Bonds & RatesEcon Data Not Bond-FriendlySeptember CPI Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 2.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected but down from the 2.5% annual increase in August. 2.4% is the sm2024-10-11 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 11Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2024-10-07 · Investment ConceptsAre You Really Diversified?In today’s market, it’s hard to ignore how much power the largest companies hold within the S&P 500. These massive companies have grown to represent the highest conce2024-10-04 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 4Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Bet2024-10-02 · Market UpdatesAre You Appropriately Positioned?The Fed cut 50bps in September and expects more rate cuts to come. They are not alone as central banks around the world are cutting rates. September saw the most rate cut

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