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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2024-10-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2024The Market Hit New Highs, From Different “Whys”: The character of the market changed in Q3, but the direction remained the same with strong breadth. Many have asked if th2024-09-27 · Bonds & RatesThe Fed’s RecalibrationPost Covid Inflation Source: Bianco. As of 9/24/24 In a recent op-ed, Jim Bianco argued that recessions and financial crises can create change across an economy. In 2020,2024-09-27 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 27Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brett: The mas2024-09-23 · Investment ConceptsThe Myth of Cash on the SidelinesYou’ve probably heard the phrase “cash on the sidelines” used in market commentary, often suggesting there’s a huge pool of money waiting to flood into the market. One re2024-09-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Fed Up With High Real RatesI’m hyped. Things David Wagner is hyped for: I’m hyped for the market; I’m hyped for the Aptus ETF strategies; I’m hyped for the structure of our Asset Allocation (MOAR S2024-09-20 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 20Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The long2024-09-19 · Bonds & RatesFOMC: The First Cut is the Deepest?The debate between 25 or 50bps has been settled. It appears that markets strong-armed the Fed to front-load their first cut, where today they cut the funds rate by 50bps.2024-09-16 · Investment ConceptsDirect Indexing: A Few Considerations for AdvisorsThere has been much ink spilled on the topic of the explosive growth in the ETF space over the last few years. For this author who came into the profession when the mutua2024-09-13 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 13Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Cha2024-09-11 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Politics Go the Distance in Investor MindsFirst and foremost, I hope everyone takes time to reflect on the events of 23 years ago and pray for those who lost their lives, fought for our country, risked their live2024-09-11 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, September 2024September 11th We take a moment at Aptus today to remember the lives lost on this tragic day 23 years ago. We are grateful for the men and women who make the enormous sac2024-09-09 · Investment ConceptsSelling Puts as a Form of Risk Management?Options offer a flexible approach to managing risk and gaining market exposure. For example, buying put options can serve as a hedge against sudden market declines, allow2024-09-06 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brian: Despite2024-09-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: An Earnings Creed – Q2 ’24 Earnings RecapA mere 23 years ago, America witnessed a Thanksgiving halftime performance that they had no clue that they needed. It embodied flying shirtless angels holding on to white2024-09-04 · Market UpdatesHow Do You Define Safe?Brian wrote a post last week that’s relevant to this month’s writeup. It’s worth a few minutes of your time as it provides perspective around how you should think about i2024-09-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2024August Witnessed Some Fireworks at the Onset, But It Quickly Waned: The month of August was highlighted by the unwinding of the “Japanese Carry Trade”. As of right now, t2024-08-30 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 30Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Arch: The mark2024-08-29 · Investment ConceptsThe Lost Century in BondsWhile Treasury bonds appear to offer safety, their real return tells a different story. Despite their nominal stability, investors in Treasury bonds have experienced esse2024-08-23 · Bonds & RatesJackson Hole for Now, What About DC?Rate Cut Expectations All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing 2024-08-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Overall 2024-08-19 · Investment ConceptsStock Buybacks: Dispelling the MythsStock buybacks are a frequent corporate practice that often sparks debate and confusion. As a means for companies to return excess capital to shareholders, buybacks can s2024-08-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: The s2024-08-16 · Investment ConceptsThe Wealth Paradox: Should Wealthier Investors Take More Risk?When it comes to investing, there’s a widely held belief that bonds are the safer choice, particularly for those with substantial wealth. After all, if you’ve amassed a s2024-08-09 · Bonds & RatesLarge Cut in September?We continue to believe the first Fed rate cut will be in September and this move will likely start a sequence of cuts. With that being said, we don’t see the case for a j2024-08-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Stocks m2024-08-06 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Making Sense of August 5thI’d love to cut right to the chase, but many of today’s problems can be solved by proper allocation. It’s times like these that show why Aptus is built the way we are. We2024-08-06 · Market UpdatesPortfolio Resilience During Global Market DeclineGlobal markets are experiencing notable declines, from challenges within Japan and the yen carry trade unwind. This event appears technical, but we are vigilant in assess2024-08-05 · Investment ConceptsBeware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller’s Ratio in Modern Market ValuationThe Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratio, introduced by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller in 1988, has long been a cornerstone of market valuation metrics. By s2024-08-05 · Market UpdatesCustom vs. ProductionReal-Time Update I started this note with markets at all-time highs, or close to it. As I type, we are now in a ~8% pullback. VIX hit 65 this morning (August 5th). This t2024-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2024July ‘24 Market Recap + Some August: Political fireworks and a dramatic rotation from large to small cap dominated the headlines over the past month. But, more recently t2024-08-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: It on2024-08-01 · Bonds & RatesJuly FOMC: No Change But September LikelyAs expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in2024-07-31 · Investment ConceptsTackling Longevity Risk: The Hidden Power of Home OwnershipFor many, owning a home is primarily about having a place to live, fundamentally a form of consumption. However, real estate is often viewed as a safe bet for building we2024-07-26 · Bonds & RatesFuture Treasury Yields: Look Beyond Headline MeasuresReal Rates… Was the Post-GFC Period the Anomaly? The current real rate (interest rate adjusted for inflation) sits around 2.93%, which is the highest level since 2007. Ho2024-07-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Smaller 2024-07-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Biden Drops OutMultiple clients have asked for thoughts regarding President Joe Biden’s exit from the upcoming election, and its effect on the markets (I hear that “investor” listed at 2024-07-23 · Investment ConceptsFixed Income: Coupon is KingWhen investing in investment-grade bonds, many investors might be surprised to learn that the vast majority of returns come from coupon payments rather than price appreci2024-07-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: We’2024-07-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2024 Earnings PreviewBefore we get into the topic du jour, let’s hit on a few things: Joseph Sykora, CFA, Head of Private Investments at Aptus, sent out an awesome quote this morning: “Equiti2024-07-16 · Investment ConceptsThe Unrealistic Math of Bonds Protecting a PortfolioIn the world of investment strategies, the 60/40 portfolio, with 60% allocated to equities and 40% to Treasuries, is the classic approach aimed at balancing growth and st2024-07-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: May2024-07-11 · Bonds & RatesCloser to Rate CutsJune CPI Reaction In response to the CPI print, markets are now pricing in an 8.5% chance of a July cut, a 94.5% of a September cut, and an 85.6% chance of at least 2 cut2024-07-08 · Market UpdatesWhat MattersBasketball is a simple game. There’s complexity when it comes to different offensive or defensive schemes. There’s advanced analytics and Moneyball-type statistics everyw2024-07-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2024-07-01 · Process PapersAptus Firm OverviewACA specializes in risk-mitigated investing, focused on helping advisors create more confident clients. Read more about us here: Aptus Firm Overview2024-07-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2024June ‘24 Market Recap – Let the Good Times Roll: The S&P 500 had its 32nd all-time high this year during the month – ending June slightly off the potential for a 33rd2024-06-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brian: The sto2024-06-27 · Bonds & RatesBonds Still Facing HeadwindsHigher Neutral Rate Could Lead to Structurally Higher Interest Rates The graphic below shows pricing for forward contracts referencing the five-year interest rate in five2024-06-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Enter Stage Left, the U.S. Presidential ElectionWell, there’s no sugarcoating this one; the first U.S. Presidential Election Debate for the current race will occur later this week. This event will likely jumpstart an o2024-06-24 · Investment ConceptsWho is Going to Pay You?As we move into the second half of 2024, the outlook appears relatively positive. As we highlighted in last month’s 3 Pointers, when index returns were historically stron2024-06-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Bigger s2024-06-17 · Investment ConceptsLeverage Your Way to Better Risk-Adjusted ReturnsFor investors seeking to outpace the standard gains of the broader equity market, leveraging market exposures during favorable conditions presents a compelling strategy. 2024-06-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: FOM2024-06-13 · Bonds & RatesMay Inflation + June FOMCWe see today’s print to be one of the first encouraging inflation prints for the Fed. The broader softness across components could point to a continuation of the slowing 2024-06-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The dive2024-06-05 · Market UpdatesWinning Within the SystemI’ve been reminded of two things this month: It is a privilege to get to write about things we think matter. Thank you for the opportunity. The importance of communicatin2024-06-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2024May ‘24 Market Recap – In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb: After April came in with showers, May came out like a lamb, driven by a better-than-anticipated earnings season, l2024-05-31 · Investment ConceptsHigh-Yield: Decomposing and Recomposing Risks for an Improved AlternativeInvestors are always looking for ways to enhance returns, such as seeking alternatives that can provide higher yields without excessive risk. Traditional high-yield bonds2024-05-31 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 31Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brian: It’s be2024-05-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 24Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: It’s

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