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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2024-05-23 · Bonds & RatesLots to Consider for T-Bond BuyersTBAC Seeks New Funding Ideas The borrowing needs of the Treasury over the coming years are expected to drive an increase in issuance as the debt load compounds. The share2024-05-17 · Investment ConceptsOn Compounding: RIP Jim SimonsJim Simons, the mastermind behind Renaissance Technologies, recently passed away at 86. Simons, a brilliant mathematician and former codebreaker, founded Renaissance in 12024-05-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 17Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brett: DJIA hi2024-05-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2024 Earnings Season RecapI hope everyone survived the great bear market of April 2024. The market clearly created a wall of worry around earnings, and it appears that it largely cleared this hurd2024-05-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Earnings2024-05-09 · Bonds & RatesMay 2024: Around the Bond MarketShort Term Treasuries Offer Higher Income and Stability vs. Long Duration As interest rates have moved higher, the front end of the curve is offering a combination of hig2024-05-09 · Investment ConceptsThe Risks and Opportunities in Private CreditThough certainly not new, private credit has become increasingly topical within investment circles. While the term seems to invoke mystical feelings of IRR (internal rate2024-05-06 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2024April ‘24 Market Recap – Staircase Up, Elevator Down: It was April showers as it was the worst month since September. April has given back much of the Q1 gains as 10-year2024-05-06 · Investment ConceptsThe Case for Flexibility in Next-Generation Hedged EquityIn the rapidly shifting terrain of financial markets, the adaptability of investment strategies can be a decisive factor in their success. This post delves into the poten2024-05-03 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 3Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Mar2024-05-02 · Bonds & RatesFOMC May 2024: I Don’t See the Stag or the FlationAs expected, the Fed kept its Funds rate range unchanged at a 5.25% – 5.50% level. Powell’s comments were less hawkish than feared, but there was disappointment expressed2024-04-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Lik2024-04-25 · Bonds & RatesTraditional Bonds Still Not IdealThe flexible components of core CPI have been in deflationary territory over the past year (blue line in the chart below). The stickier components of core CPI, however, a2024-04-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Earnings2024-04-18 · Bonds & RatesThe Role of Bonds in an Inflationary WorldFor decades, investors have treated bonds as a cornerstone of portfolio diversification, largely based on their performance during the late 20th century. From the early 22024-04-17 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2024 Earnings PreviewA repeated question that I’ve continued to receive is: What’s Going to Kill the Market Rally? In fact, this was the exact question I was asked on Fox Business’s Varney &a2024-04-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Thi2024-04-11 · Bonds & RatesTransitory DisinflationUS inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month. Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February. Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2022024-04-10 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Valuing International MarketsOver the past few months, many of you have heard us focus much of our market commentary around the perception of equity valuations – that U.S. stocks may not be as expens2024-04-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: After2024-04-03 · Investment ConceptsNavigating Retirement: Balancing Drawdown and LongevityRetirement planning is a critical aspect of financial management, and understanding how to manage savings can make a significant difference in financial stability during 2024-04-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2024March ‘24 Market Recap: The S&P 500 returned 10.6% in Q1, on a combination of two very powerful forces; dovish central banks and a continued broadening of the AI narr2024-04-01 · Market UpdatesWinning the RaceOur favorite fund manager David Dredge made a return visit to the Macro Hive podcast, and again it was a joy to hear him discuss better ways to pursue compounding wealth.2024-03-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brett: It’s be2024-03-27 · Bonds & RatesLot of Moving Parts in the Bond MarketTreasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is unch2024-03-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2024-03-21 · Bonds & RatesMarch 2024 FOMC: Dovish ToneThe FOMC voted unanimously to leave their benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Source: Bloomberg as of 03.20.2024 The big surprise was the willingn2024-03-19 · Investment ConceptsRisk vs Reward: NCAA Bracket EditionThe NCAA Tournament is not just an annual highlight of American sports betting—err, culture—but also a prime lesson in decision-making amidst uncertainty. And no, writing2024-03-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brett: Equity 2024-03-13 · Investment ConceptsHidden in Plain Sight: The Case for Small-CapsThe narrative that U.S. equity markets are overpriced has gained traction amongst investors, particularly when headlines are dominated by the astronomical valuations of m2024-03-13 · Bonds & RatesMarch CPI: Inflation Still StickyInflation Stabilizing Above 3% The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” ga2024-03-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 8Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Early-ye2024-03-05 · Market UpdatesWhat Worries Your Clients?We group portfolio risk into two categories: Longevity Risk Drawdown Risk (A form of volatility risk) Risk #2 dominates the minds of most advisors and clients we speak wi2024-03-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2024February ‘24 Market Recap: Helped by better-than-expected earnings, the S&P 500 (+5.3% total return) clocked a fresh high in Feb. But just 26% of stocks outperformed 2024-03-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, March 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: On 2024-02-29 · Bonds & RatesCompeting Forces in the Bond MarketProductivity is the Way Out Productivity plays a crucial role in influencing both inflation and economic growth. A key to stopping a second wave of inflation is likely pr2024-02-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Rat2024-02-22 · Investment ConceptsThe Long Game: Using Time to Your AdvantageA common debate in the world of investing revolves around the timing of market entries. While it is true that stocks can underperform cash, especially over shorter time f2024-02-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The typi2024-02-14 · Bonds & RatesCPI: Shelter Costs Remain Uncomfortably HighConsumer prices came in hotter than expected to start the year. This delivers another painful blow to market expectations for quick and aggressive Fed rate cuts. January 2024-02-13 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2023 Earnings RecapS&P 500 Earnings Recap – Q4 2023 Fox Business (Varney) – Earnings Interview Heading into this year, at the market level, I continued to state that “the burden of proo2024-02-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Mar2024-02-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Can the Market Go Higher?As many of you know, we have our ear to the ground with partners across the country – something we are proud to say. Another thing that we are very proud about is bringin2024-02-06 · Market UpdatesCasting a Wider NetVery few days pass that don’t involve a cast net being thrown at our house. I’m not sure I can think of anything I’d rather do than throw the net with my crew. My kids ha2024-02-05 · Investment ConceptsPortfolio Diversification: Beyond BondsWhich diversifier added to a balanced portfolio at a 10% weight is more likely to result in a portfolio with higher returns and lower volatility? Asset A: Expected annual2024-02-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, February 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Bef2024-02-01 · Bonds & RatesFed Reconfirms 2% Inflation TargetThe Fed left the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, as was expected. This is the fourth meeting in a row of no action. They did back away from their prior bias to fu2024-02-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2024January ‘24 Market Recap → Good Start, Bad Breadth: Despite the S&P 500 rally, the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.7% as breadth narrowed to just 34% (% of stocks a2024-01-26 · Market UpdatesChinese Stocks: The Disconnect with Economic GrowthIn the world of finance, it’s often assumed that a thriving economy translates to robust stock market returns. However, when we scrutinize the Chinese stock market, a sta2024-01-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brett: Core Pe2024-01-23 · Investment ConceptsConsiderations in Tight Credit EnvironmentsIn a previous post, we outlined how shorter-duration bonds may now present an intriguing opportunity, as they now offer a yield surpassing forecasted inflation, a welcome2024-01-23 · Market UpdatesHappy 5 Years to Our Compounders!When we made the Aptus Compounders sleeve available to advisors in 2018, we never put much thought into the actual strategy name. It just came naturally to us, and we ran2024-01-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Earnings AheadS&P 500 Earnings Preview – Q4 2023 It’s common knowledge that if the market endures two (2) consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, it is considered a recession 2024-01-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: It’2024-01-18 · Bonds & RatesInflation Volatility Unlikely to DisappearMarket is Pricing in Six Rates Cuts in 2024 Currently, Fed Funds traders are pricing in six cuts (shown below in orange) by the end of 2024. Keep in mind that the Fed pro2024-01-16 · Investment ConceptsBuy Low, Sell High?Markets at Highs: A Pathway, Not Obstacle, to Strong Market Returns The recent resurgence of global stocks, with many (especially those within the United States) edging c2024-01-12 · Bonds & RatesDecember CPI: Shelter Prices Still the DriverThe U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y). Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024 Inflat2024-01-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: Equit2024-01-09 · Investment ConceptsSnowballing Returns: The Hidden Magic of ETFsUnleashing the Power of ETF Tax-Efficiency for Higher Compounded Returns Exploring how reinvested earnings, return, and tax deferral provide the rocket fuel for compounde2024-01-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, January 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Joseph: In any

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