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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2024-01-04 · Market UpdatesA Recipe for SuccessInvestors should have one goal – to compound capital. A sufficient compounded return is at the heart of all things related to financial goals. That’s our goal in 2024. To2024-01-04 · Bonds & RatesAssessing the Historic Bond RallyBiggest Two-Month Rally in 40 Years Optimistic inflation data, and a Fed in the driver’s seat, have investors pricing in ~6 rate cuts in 2024. Source: Bianco as of 12.31.2024-01-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2024December ’23 Market Recap: Investors enjoyed broad-based relief in the fourth quarter. After rising sharply in Q2 and Q3, rates peaked in the fourth quarter fueled by Pow2024-01-02 · Process PapersAptus Investment MethodologyDrawdown Patrol Investing: Upside Capture Through Downside Protection Our approach is designed to produce what every investor wants, potential for growth and income while2023-12-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Joseph: Like l2023-12-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : William GrahamYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-12-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: With the2023-12-21 · Market UpdatesMarket Outlook 2024: Will Consumers Shrug?Who Is John Galt? In 1957, Ayn Rand, an anti-statist public intellectual, wrote her magnum opus – Atlas Shrugged. The best-selling dystopian novel depicted a United State2023-12-21 · Bonds & RatesWill the Dovish Pivot Stick?The shift in expectations for future interest rates has become the top narrative of markets. Following last week’s FOMC meeting, markets were thrilled to see the Fed add 2023-12-15 · Bonds & RatesDecember FOMC UpdateAs expected, the Fed left its target rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, matching market consensus. The updated rate forecast, or dot plot, doesn’t have another rate hike pe2023-12-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2023-12-13 · Investment ConceptsIs Cash King? Assessing Cash Against Bonds in Today’s Market* For the purposes of this post “cash” is meant to be synonymous with 3-month treasury bills* Investors face a dilemma. Should they embrace the incremental risk of bonds,2023-12-12 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Can the S&P 500 Win if the Mag 7 Loses?Quick CPI Inflation Thoughts: Simply put, the last mile of bringing inflation back down to the Fed’s long-term target will be difficult – most likely due to the continued2023-12-12 · Investment ConceptsShohei Ohtani’s Contract Value: What’s Your Discount Rate?Recent reports set the baseball world abuzz with news of Shohei Ohtani, the dynamic two-way two-time MVP of the American League, signing a staggering $700 million, 10-yea2023-12-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 8Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Markets 2023-12-07 · Bonds & RatesUpdate on Rate Cut ExpectationsFed expectations moved drastically last week. On Friday, November 24, markets were pricing in three cuts in 2024, with the first in June (orange). By Friday, December 1, 2023-12-06 · Market UpdatesTaxation By Inflation“By continuing the process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not o2023-12-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2023November ’23 Market Recap: After a 20% drawdown in many stocks between July and October, equities staged an impressive rebound in November thanks to the sharp reversal in2023-12-04 · Market UpdatesMagnificent SevenMany came into 2023 expecting a recession, and accordingly, bearish on equities. While the economic data has been much better than expected (particularly employment), it 2023-12-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, December 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: We ju2023-11-30 · Investment ConceptsWhy Invest?Investing can be fun. Well, at least some days. Maybe a roller-coaster is a better description. The hardest part is finding a way to keep the train on the tracks by focus2023-11-24 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 24Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Advisors2023-11-22 · Bonds & RatesQT Still On But Conditions Have EasedLast week, the CPI & PPI print both came in weaker than expected. The market responded favorably with stocks up and yields dropping. The bigger change in our minds wa2023-11-17 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 17Dave: Tuesday’s reaction to the tame CPI report was the ripper of the year Source: Strategas as of 11.14.2023 John Luke: as markets have more confidence that the Fed will2023-11-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 ’23 Earnings Season ReviewI want to start here: “Given that the stock market tends to go up more than down (60-70% of the time), odds are the current trading range is a prelude to another advance.2023-11-10 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 10Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Q3 earni2023-11-09 · Bonds & RatesBond Bounce: Sustainable?Last week brought a substantial rally in bonds following a brutal three-month span of higher rates. There are a couple of reasons we can point to for the move lower in ra2023-11-07 · Market UpdatesKeeping Client Eyes On the FutureIn our recent piece Enhancing Your (Portfolio) Engine, we walked through our logic: Own more stocks, in a risk-neutral way Embrace beta to capture the ups Use volatility 2023-11-03 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, November 3Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: With ear2023-11-02 · Bonds & RatesFOMC Pause, For NowAs broadly expected, the Fed left their target Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25% to 5.50% range. The pause from July to November marks the longest period without an i2023-11-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2023October ’23 Market Recap: In a part of the year, in which the market tends to witness some seasonal weakness, the S&P notched its first negative three-month performan2023-10-27 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 27Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Investor2023-10-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2023 Earnings PreviewCatching up This past weekend, Aptus held our 4th annual Uncle Rico 2v2 Basketball tournament. As many of y’all know, we have a slew of former college and professional ba2023-10-25 · Bonds & RatesHigh Bond Volatility Supports Higher YieldsProbable Fed Pause in November Fed Chair Powell’s commentary last week pointed to the relentless rise in longer-dated Treasury yields that was creating an environment of 2023-10-20 · Investment ConceptsHelping Clients Reach the Finish LineGood reminder that bonds are not always the “safe” asset we all want them to be. A recent Content Hub post from JD, thought it made sense to share in case you missed… We 2023-10-20 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 20Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Sep2023-10-13 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 13Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: Earni2023-10-11 · Bonds & RatesAround the Bond Market, October 2023Inflation Still a Concern September PPI rose 0.5%, more than the 0.3% gain expected and following a 0.7% increase the month prior. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 2.2023-10-09 · Market UpdatesEnhancing Your Engine (Portfolio Version)We will build on this note in weeks to come. As you’ve probably heard us say, we think it makes sense to equip portfolios with a stronger engine (stocks), using better br2023-10-06 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, October 6Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2023-10-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2023September ’23 Market Recap: As the weakest seasonal period for equities historically, September is doing what September does. The S&P 500 was down -4.8%. This was a s2023-09-29 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 29Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The stor2023-09-27 · Bonds & RatesMarkets Finally Believing Higher for LongerThe recent Fed meeting brought an update to the 2024 median for the Fed Funds rate. It was pushed higher with the top dot now 6.1%, up from 5.9% in June. If growth persis2023-09-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Joseph SykoraYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-09-22 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 22Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2023-09-21 · Bonds & RatesThe Complexities of InflationWe thought the current backdrop provided an opportunity to dive into the basics of inflation. The below analysis will attempt to isolate different types of inflation, and2023-09-15 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 15Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Septembe2023-09-13 · Bonds & RatesRate Hikes Working, No Cuts AheadHeadline CPI rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, a faster pace than in July as gasoline prices jumped. Core CPI rose 0.3% (stripping food and energy costs), a hotte2023-09-12 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Come MondayThe world lost a great icon the other day; Jimmy Buffett. And in honor of the man, the myth, and the legend himself, this Musing is dedicated to him. For those that don’t2023-09-08 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 8Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: NVD2023-09-06 · Market UpdatesHelping Clients Reach the Finish LineWe talk constantly about the two main risks we help advisors defend against: Drawdown: sharp drops that interrupt compounding and trigger client fear Longevity: insuffici2023-09-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2023August ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 reversed course in August, falling 1.6% after jumping 10% in June-July on a total return basis. Higher rates, more positioning ri2023-09-01 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, September 1Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: In the p2023-08-31 · Bonds & RatesAll Around the Bond Market, Aug 2023Jackson Hole Fed Chair Powell’s message last week at Jackson Hole was direct. The Fed won’t be taking victory laps over inflation just yet. Powell noted “we are navigatin2023-08-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Why Rates Haven’t Had a Material ImpactWe’ve been fielding a few questions as to why higher rates have seemingly had no collateral damage on the economy except for a few banking failures back in March. Let’s h2023-08-25 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 25Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: It’2023-08-18 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 18Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Mark: The abil2023-08-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2023 Earnings RecapLast week, President Biden signed an executive order limiting US investments in China for advanced semiconductors, quantum computing, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) sys2023-08-15 · Bonds & RatesMarket Still Undershooting Fed CommunicationGlobal central bankers will gather later this month in Jackson Hole, WY for their annual meeting. We anticipate markets will seek to understand Powell’s desire to push ba2023-08-11 · Bonds & RatesAugust 2023 CPI: Progress ContinuesThe July CPI came out to be another soft report and points to further moderation in inflation. Headline CPI increased by 0.2% MoM (0.167% unrounded), which resulted in th

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