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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2023-08-11 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 11Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: Most Q2 2023-08-08 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Why Has the Market Been Resilient?I understand that a lot of y’all have upcoming client meetings, so I wanted to take more of a high-level approach to this Musing, instead of focusing on a single subject.2023-08-04 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, August 4Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: If you d2023-08-02 · Bonds & RatesFitch Downgrades US Credit RatingWe’ve all seen the news that Fitch downgraded the US Government’s credit rating from AAA to AA+. Fitch’s move follows a similar cut by S&P about 12 years ago. Source:2023-08-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2023July ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 3.2% in July on a total return basis, the fifth month of gains and the ninth straight positive July. Less favorable seasonal2023-08-01 · Bonds & RatesYields Rising, and a Curveball!Rise in Interest Income is Helping Buoy the Consumer The increase in interest rates over the last 15-18 months has made it is more expensive to borrow money but on the fl2023-07-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: VIX2023-07-26 · Bonds & RatesJuly 2023 FOMC: Another 25bpsThe Fed raised rates for the 11th time in 16 months, bumping rates +25bp to 5.25%-5.5% at today’s FOMC meeting. This matched the market consensus and puts short-term rate2023-07-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: The Y2023-07-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2023 Earnings PreviewBefore we dive in, if anyone needs any of our quarterly newsletters, presentations, updates, etc., feel free to reach out. Also, if anyone would like a quarterly market u2023-07-19 · Bonds & RatesThe Fed is Still on AlertWith many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have be2023-07-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2023-07-12 · Market UpdatesWill June CPI Be the Low?More Progress in June Inflation Numbers: → Headline CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) → Core CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior) It was exactly on2023-07-11 · Investment ConceptsThe Never-Ending Balancing ActThere is a constant pirouette of working, saving, and spending throughout our lives. Regardless of your career and net worth, we all attempt to elegantly balance our budg2023-07-07 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, July 7Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Mor2023-07-06 · Market UpdatesRevisiting the Volatility TaxThe Volatility Tax Almost 2 years ago to the day, we published this piece: Reducing the Volatility Tax. We thought revisiting this concept was timely given the last 18 mo2023-07-05 · Bonds & RatesFed and Treasury on Collision CourseQT Slowly Eating Away Liquidity Even with the spike in the Fed’s Balance sheet following the SIVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, QT is still quietly going on in the back2023-07-03 · Market UpdatesQ2 2023 Recap and Chart Book(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more re2023-06-30 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2023June ‘23 Market Recap: The banking fears of Q1 faded into an all-out Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) FOMO trade in Q2, as the S&P 500 returned 8.74%. Outside of AI, th2023-06-30 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 30Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: The2023-06-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : Brett WickmannYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-06-23 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 23Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Right on2023-06-21 · Bonds & RatesCan Inflation Slow Without Economic Damage?Source: Strategas as of 06.20.2023 Many of the underlying sources of inflation have cooled over the past year. Supply chains have improved, interest rate sensitive sector2023-06-16 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 16Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Mos2023-06-15 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Economic CyclesIn case you missed it – JL put something out on CPI on Tuesday. If you want any commentary on the Fed/FOMC, just reach out and we can discuss today’s hawkish “skip”, whic2023-06-15 · Bonds & RatesJune FOMC Recap & ThoughtsThe “Hawkish” Pause Yesterday the Fed left their target for the funds rate unchanged between 5% to 5.25%. Many labeled the pause a hawkish “skip” where further tightening2023-06-14 · Bonds & RatesMay CPI: Easier Inflation Comps EndingYear-over-year CPI declined in May, roughly in line with estimates: Headline MoM: +0.1% (Expected: +0.1%) Core MoM: +0.4% (Expected +0.4%) Headline YoY: +4.0% (Expected: 2023-06-09 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 9Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: As every2023-06-07 · Bonds & RatesPause Ahead… What About the Fall?The next Fed meeting starts a week from today. As of now, the market is currently pricing in just a 23% chance the Fed hikes at the meeting. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos already p2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesA Process to Match the GameStroke Play or Match Play For any non-golfers out there, match play is hole-by-hole scoring. Meaning, you play to win each hole individually. Your score from the prior ho2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : John GoldsberryYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-06-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2023May ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 0.4% in May and traded in a 100pt range (4056 and 4169), one of the most narrow monthly ranges (11th percentile) in history s2023-06-02 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, June 2Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: Technica2023-05-31 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: The Debt Ceiling ResolutionWith the NBA finals beginning, let’s heed some wisdom from the NBA G.O.A.T., Michael Jordan, who once said that the ceiling is the roof. Unfortunately, that wisdom proved2023-05-26 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 26Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Beckham: The i2023-05-24 · Bonds & RatesWhat Rate Cuts?Not too long ago, markets were pricing potential for a rate cut at the July meeting. That has been pushed out to November as the “hold-and-see” narrative takes over from 2023-05-22 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2023 Earnings RecapI broke a 2 year tradition: I was unable to get a musing out on George Strait’s birthday (D.O.B: 5/18/1952). He turned everyone’s favorite golf score, 71 – also the score2023-05-19 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 19Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Dave: The debt2023-05-15 · Bonds & RatesT-Bills At Risk?We’ve written extensively about the debt ceiling, and how it could impact markets (see Part One and Part Deux). While uncertainty remains around the various market impact2023-05-12 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 12Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Tou2023-05-11 · Bonds & RatesApril CPI is No Game ChangerInline CPI print with Shelter continuing to pull the index higher although some signs of slowing. Used Cars prices came in hotter than expected which have been lagging th2023-05-05 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, May 5Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Dem2023-05-03 · Market UpdatesDiversifiers vs. HedgesI’m starting with this chart because it matters: Source: TS Lombard as of March 2023 What you are looking at is the rolling 10-year correlation between stocks and bonds. 2023-05-03 · Bonds & RatesMay 2023 FOMC: (Still) Higher for LongerThe Fed delivered a 25bps hike as was broadly expected by markets. They made a modification in their statement omitting the wording regarding the necessity of further rat2023-05-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2023April ‘23 Market Recap: Despite elevated macro and micro uncertainty, the S&P 500 rallied 1.5% in April. Keeping with positive correlation, fixed income continues to 2023-04-28 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 28Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: Brad: The rece2023-04-27 · Bonds & RatesThoughts on the Curve. And Municipals.Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the c2023-04-25 · Market UpdatesIs Gold Worth Owning?The recent performance of gold has caught investor attention. Following the banking sector stress, and a near-record drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield, markets have ha2023-04-21 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 21Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Loo2023-04-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2023 Earnings PreviewOn the radio last week, I heard a classic John Prine song that had the following (slightly tweaked) lyric: “a clown puts his makeup on upside down, so even when he smiles2023-04-18 · Investment ConceptsPaying Taxes Isn’t Always BadAs we put a wrap on another tax season, can we reflect? Savings and retirement Income planning, which are really at the core of every financial plan, tend to always have 2023-04-14 · Market in PicturesThe Market in Pictures, April 14Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Inf2023-04-13 · Bonds & RatesMarch 2023 CPI UpdateCore CPI was in line with a softer shelter print (shelter/OER came in at 0.45%), but the headline was a little soft as energy declined, food was flat. The big question is2023-04-10 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: De-Dollarization?Alright, let’s hit a polarizing topic because I’ve been asked this question numerous times over the last week or so – the currency debate. It’s no secret that the dominan2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesDecision InputsDecisions are easier to make if conviction of outcome is high, and/or the tradeoff profile is attractive enough. Even if (you think) you know the outcome of an event, if 2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesQ1 2023 Recap and Chart Book(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more re2023-04-04 · Market UpdatesSurprise! OPEC is Still in ChargeAs recently as last month, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its representatives suggested that they had no intention of cutting crude oil producti2023-04-03 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : James BaiYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-04-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2023March ‘23 Market Recap; The S&P 500 ignored the fallout from banking woes and recorded a surprising +3.7% gain last month, leaving the index in positive territory for2023-04-03 · Bonds & RatesTIPS Update, March 2023A Look Back on TIPS Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of government bond issued by the US Treasury Department. Unlike conventional bonds, TIPS are

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