The Role of Bonds in an Inflationary World

For decades, investors have treated bonds as a cornerstone of portfolio diversification, largely based on their performance during the late 20th century. From the early 2000s and through the 2010s, the often-negative correlation between stocks and bonds provided a...

Transitory Disinflation

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month.  Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February.   Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2024   March CPI: Headline: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY: Headline:...

The Market in Pictures, April 5

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: After this week’s data and Fedspeak, it’s now a toss-up for markets whether the first rate cut...

Lot of Moving Parts in the Bond Market

Treasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels   As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is uncharted territory.  It was ironic that Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget...

Competing Forces in the Bond Market

Productivity is the Way Out Productivity plays a crucial role in influencing both inflation and economic growth. A key to stopping a second wave of inflation is likely productivity (output per hour) picking up. Instead of having too much money chasing too few goods we...