by John Luke Tyner | Jul 26, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Real Rates… Was the Post-GFC Period the Anomaly? The current real rate (interest rate adjusted for inflation) sits around 2.93%, which is the highest level since 2007. However, the post-financial crisis real rate period, shown in red, was not a “normal” period....
by Brian Jacobs | Jul 16, 2024 | Blog, Investment Concepts
In the world of investment strategies, the 60/40 portfolio, with 60% allocated to equities and 40% to Treasuries, is the classic approach aimed at balancing growth and stability. But what if the stability component is less likely to help the next time equities take a...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 11, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
June CPI Reaction In response to the CPI print, markets are now pricing in an 8.5% chance of a July cut, a 94.5% of a September cut, and an 85.6% chance of at least 2 cuts by the end of the year. We think the market should not ignore the signal here. We’re...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 27, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Higher Neutral Rate Could Lead to Structurally Higher Interest Rates The graphic below shows pricing for forward contracts referencing the five-year interest rate in five years. This gives a proxy for the market’s view of where US rates might end up. ...
by John Archbold | Jun 24, 2024 | Blog, Investment Concepts
As we move into the second half of 2024, the outlook appears relatively positive. As we highlighted in last month’s 3 Pointers, when index returns were historically strong the first few months of the year, the remainder of the year also tends to perform well. Economic...
