How Do You Define Safe?

How Do You Define Safe?

Brian wrote a post last week that’s relevant to this month’s writeup. It’s worth a few minutes of your time as it provides perspective around how you should think about investing your hard earned money: The Lost Century in Bonds. Volatility is not risk, and the...

Jackson Hole for Now, What About DC?

Rate Cut Expectations   All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing in ~1.25 cuts (roughly 31bps), basically a 25bps cut. Over the past weeks, we’ve bounced...

Large Cut in September?

We continue to believe the first Fed rate cut will be in September and this move will likely start a sequence of cuts. With that being said, we don’t see the case for a jumbo -50bp cut. The Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August deserves special attention for...

July FOMC: No Change But September Likely

As expected, the Fed kept the funds rate range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, and while the tone of the statement was less hawkish, it didn’t overtly hint that a rate cut in September was a certainty. They did make some substantive changes to the statement...