Is the Bond Market Overreacting?

As Treasury bonds take out the highest yield levels since the early 2000s, there is no scarcity of headlines hitting the tape. Treasuries have been trading like a risk asset. The long end of the curve has not liked lower policy rates since the Fed began cutting back...

What’s Really Driving Yields Higher

The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 5.00%, and the 30-year at ~5.37% (as of 9/16/26) — both brushing up against levels last seen in 2007. The Fed met today and delivered a 25bps hike, and if you have followed the 2yr Treasury (4.65% going into the meeting,...

Jackson Hole: Project Realignment

Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks provided the market with what participants hoped for: A more thorough view from the Fed on the economy and inflation, which appeared to satisfy investors’ concerns. Overall, I’d rate his comments as more hawkishly tilted than the...

The Market in Pictures, July 24

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts center on a violent rotation beneath a calm surface: semis selling off hard, AI winners giving back gains, and the 1st half’s laggards taking the lead, all while the average stock...