Prepare for More Tightening

by | Sep 14, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

Another Hot Inflation Report   CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...

The Market in Pictures, September 2

by | Sep 2, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   Dave: The first half of 2022 mostly driven by Fed hikes, but 2nd half looks like an earnings story…   Data...

The Market in Pictures, August 26

by | Aug 26, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Where will Fed Funds and CPI intersect?     JL: and will the 10 year bond again give us clues to...

The Fed May Not Be Your Friend For Awhile

by | Aug 17, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

CPI Softer but Higher Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) Remain Problematic   A sustained slowdown in inflation (the Fed’s clear goal) will require a sustained slowdown in economic activity — creating slack and driving down Unit Labor Cost growth. A key economic...

The Market in Pictures, August 12

by | Aug 12, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and why:   Joseph: All of the 2020 job losses have now been recovered. Where that stacks up vs. other recessions    Source: Calculated Risk as of 08.05.2022...