Closer to Rate Cuts

June CPI Reaction In response to the CPI print, markets are now pricing in an 8.5% chance of a July cut, a 94.5% of a September cut, and an 85.6% chance of at least 2 cuts by the end of the year. We think the market should not ignore the signal here. We’re...

May Inflation + June FOMC

We see today’s print to be one of the first encouraging inflation prints for the Fed. The broader softness across components could point to a continuation of the slowing inflation data. May Core CPI came at 0.163% M/M (2% annualized), which was well below estimates....

The Market in Pictures, April 26

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Like savers vs. borrowers, there is a huge split right now between services and goods inflation...