Rearview to Windshield, December 2022

November 2022 Market Recap: The S&P 500 bounce in November (+5.4%) occurred as the US yield curve inverted further as the 10 year treasury yields rallied. This is the second straight month of strong gains, as October returned +8.1%. It feels as if the market is...

Was that the Powell Pivot 2.0?

Powell’s comments and the market response yesterday were noteworthy. The equity market rose (SPX +3.05%) while bond yields rallied across the yield curve following Powell’s Brookings Institute presentation. The market was positioned for a hawkish speech and...

A Rant on the Yield Curve Inversion

Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go?    Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22.    It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...

The Market in Pictures, November 18

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   JL: Year-over-year food costs are set to deflate for the first time since pre-COVID   Source: Bianco...