The Market in Pictures, September 22

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn’t moved, but a few members have moved their...

The Complexities of Inflation

We thought the current backdrop provided an opportunity to dive into the basics of inflation. The below analysis will attempt to isolate different types of inflation, and distill our input on where we stand on each in the current cycle. This is a bit “economic” at its...

The Market in Pictures, September 15

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: September is famous for being the weakest month for stocks, with the 2nd half being the most...

Rearview to Windshield, September 2023

August ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 reversed course in August, falling 1.6% after jumping 10% in June-July on a total return basis. Higher rates, more positioning risk, and seasonality were likely headwinds to equities, despite solid macro data and earning....

All Around the Bond Market, Aug 2023

Jackson Hole   Fed Chair Powell’s message last week at Jackson Hole was direct. The Fed won’t be taking victory laps over inflation just yet. Powell noted “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies … we will keep at it until the job is done.” Reminds us...