Rearview to Windshield, October 2023

September ’23 Market Recap: As the weakest seasonal period for equities historically, September is doing what September does. The S&P 500 was down -4.8%. This was a stressful quarter for investors with few places to hide amidst the market pullback that weighed on...

Markets Finally Believing Higher for Longer

The recent Fed meeting brought an update to the 2024 median for the Fed Funds rate. It was pushed higher with the top dot now 6.1%, up from 5.9% in June. If growth persists, several FOMC members see the funds going a lot higher than the market expects.   Source:...

The Market in Pictures, September 22

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The midpoint of the neutral policy rate hasn’t moved, but a few members have moved their...

The Complexities of Inflation

We thought the current backdrop provided an opportunity to dive into the basics of inflation. The below analysis will attempt to isolate different types of inflation, and distill our input on where we stand on each in the current cycle. This is a bit “economic” at its...