Pause Ahead… What About the Fall?

The next Fed meeting starts a week from today. As of now, the market is currently pricing in just a 23% chance the Fed hikes at the meeting. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos already provided his pre-meeting proclamation of a probable pause. At this point, anything other than a...

Rearview to Windshield, June 2023

May ‘23 Market Recap: The S&P 500 gained 0.4% in May and traded in a 100pt range (4056 and 4169), one of the most narrow monthly ranges (11th percentile) in history since the 1930s. The VIX remained low as well. Only 23% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500, the...

The Market in Pictures, May 26

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: The idea that the Fed is going to cut rates continues to move farther into the future  ...

What Rate Cuts?

Not too long ago, markets were pricing potential for a rate cut at the July meeting. That has been pushed out to November as the “hold-and-see” narrative takes over from the hiking rates narrative as the data continues to hold up stronger than expected.   Source:...