Prepare for More Tightening

Another Hot Inflation Report   CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations once in the past year. The U.S. CPI rose +0.1% m/m in Aug, and 8.3% y/y. The core CPI (ex food & energy) surged +0.6% m/m...

Rearview to Windshield, September 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   As the summer comes to a close, it’s worth looking back to Memorial Day for perspective.  Equities have been largely flattish and extremely volatile since late May, credit spreads have been flattish, bond yields have trended...

Quantitative Tightening is Here

The balance sheets of global central banks have grown drastically in the last 15 years. The United States balance sheet alone grew from ~$4 trillion to ~$9 trillion over the pace of 2 years during the pandemic. The surge in liquidity has had a drastic effect on...