FOMC Hedges a Bit

As expected, the Fed lowered the federal funds target rate 25bps on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the second consecutive rate reduction this year and now marking a total of 50bps in cuts so far in 2025 and 150bps since September of last year.   Source:...

The State of Bonds Entering Q4

Tug of War:  Goods vs Services Inflation   Goods inflation is rising because of tariffs, while the rise in services prices stabilizes.   Source: Apollo. As of 9/22/25.   As a whole, 72% of CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation...

The Market in Pictures, September 19

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from FOMC outlooks to inflation and rates, consumer spending across income and wealth levels, market and earnings breadth, and US markets...

September 2025 FOMC: A Risk Management Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected by a quarter point, to a stated range of 4.0-4.25%. This marks 125 bps in reductions since initiating the cutting cycle last September, but was the first cut since December. The long pause was in response to fears of...

FOMC : Searching for the Neutral Rate

The Fed left rates unchanged for its 5th straight meeting — keeping the fed funds range 4.25%-4.5% which was widely expected. Governors Miki Bowman and Chris Waller dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut. It was the first double-dissent by governors since 1993.  ...