The Fed is Still on Alert

With many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have been hammered down, but underlying conditions still give them the backdrop to try putting the...

Will June CPI Be the Low?

More Progress in June Inflation Numbers: → Headline CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.1% prior) → Core CPI +0.2% M/M (vs +0.3% expected, +0.4% prior) It was exactly one year ago that headline CPI topped 9.0% (July 13th, 2022) with 10-year yields closing at 3.07%...
Aptus Q2 2023 Newsletter

Aptus Q2 2023 Newsletter

Q2 2023 Key Market Takeaways   1. Everyone was bearish to begin the year, and everything rallied – one of the most anticipated recessions in recent memory has yet to occur, as the consumer has remained very resilient in the face of higher-for-longer...

Fed and Treasury on Collision Course

QT Slowly Eating Away Liquidity   Even with the spike in the Fed’s Balance sheet following the SIVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, QT is still quietly going on in the background. The Fed has stayed course in their communication of the importance of shrinking...
Aptus Q2 2023 Newsletter

Q2 2023 Recap and Chart Book

(Click above for the full update) This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path...