Central Bank Tightening, International Version

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Finally Flinched   BOJ made a decision to double the trading band of the 10-year Japanese government bond. We believe the move is justified. It may mark the start of a gradual shift away from the strict bond yield controls emblematic of...

Peak Funds Rate, For Longer

Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to:   Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal   How long will policy remain...

A Rant on the Yield Curve Inversion

Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go?    Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22.    It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...

The Market in Pictures, August 19

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fill the puzzle of evidence:   Derek: We’ve had quite a bounce in equities since mid-June, how does it compare to previous bear market rallies...

Who is Wrong About Rates?

Another Sizable Hike   The Fed raised its policy rate by 75 bps as expected, which according to Chairman Powell brings the Fed Funds target range back to “neutral”. Powell indicated decisions moving forward would be data dependent. Following the market responses...