The Yield Curve and Its Impact

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the ability to set interest rates through the Fed Funds rate – the overnight lending rate among US banks. Banks are required to retain a certain amount in deposits as capital to help guarantee their solvency. Bank deposits...

The Market in Pictures, December 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   JL: Markets are no longer buying the Fed’s hawkish story   Data as of 12.16.2022     JL:...

Central Bank Tightening, International Version

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Finally Flinched   BOJ made a decision to double the trading band of the 10-year Japanese government bond. We believe the move is justified. It may mark the start of a gradual shift away from the strict bond yield controls emblematic of...

Peak Funds Rate, For Longer

Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to:   Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal   How long will policy remain...

A Rant on the Yield Curve Inversion

Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go?    Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22.    It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...