Thoughts on the Curve. And Municipals.

Curves are Inverted, Term Premiums LOW   The market continues to price in a return to the 2010 norms of subdued inflation pressure, with term premia below zero across the curve.   Source: TS Lombard. As of 04.12.2023   While slower nominal growth could put a...

Is Gold Worth Owning?

The recent performance of gold has caught investor attention. Following the banking sector stress, and a near-record drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield, markets have had a significant change in risk appetite. Markets have repriced from 100bps of further tightening...

March 2023 CPI Update

Core CPI was in line with a softer shelter print (shelter/OER came in at 0.45%), but the headline was a little soft as energy declined, food was flat. The big question is how will the Fed view this number?   Source: Macro84. As of 4/12/23.   Core still at...

TIPS Update, March 2023

A Look Back on TIPS   Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of government bond issued by the US Treasury Department. Unlike conventional bonds, TIPS are designed to protect investors from inflation. This is done by adjusting the bond’s...

The Current Opportunity Set in Bonds

Municipal Spreads are Lacking Luster   Spreads on short municipal paper (10yrs and in) are well inside their historic averages.    Source: UBS. As of March 17th, 2023.   Municipal Supply Remains Tight   The expected muni supply coming to market is...