by John Luke Tyner | Feb 2, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed hiked 25bps to the 4.5%-4.75% range, the eighth hike in a year. The markets experienced a pretty large rally following the FOMC meeting & presser. Stocks moved higher and yields lower as Powell continued to believe a soft landing was very...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 18, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The US government will change its CPI methodology beginning next month. Previously they had updated weights biennially using two years of expenditure data. So for last year, the 2019 and 2020 y/y %’s have been combined to form the “comp” against which y/y inflation...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
CPI was right on the screws with expectations at -0.1% on headline and +0.3% core. But the details do paint a picture of lingering pressures at the core. Core services rose by 0.5%, up from the 0.4% in November. Owners’ equivalent rent rose by 0.8%, the highest...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 9, 2023 | Market Updates
2022: Unprecedented in Modern Market History For only the third year since 1926, both US stocks and bonds lost money (the other two occurrences were … 1931 and 1969. The 60/40 portfolio simply didn’t work. While this might not be new news, we believe it...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 5, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Real Bad, Nominal Worse While the Fed might have been slow off the mark in fighting inflation in 2021, they marched double-time last year starting in March, taking the benchmark Fed Funds rate from about roughly 0% to 4.5%. This brought extreme pain to the...
