by John Luke Tyner | Mar 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Municipal Spreads are Lacking Luster Spreads on short municipal paper (10yrs and in) are well inside their historic averages. Source: UBS. As of March 17th, 2023. Municipal Supply Remains Tight The expected muni supply coming to market is...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 14, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Consumer prices rose in February by the most in 5 months, although the move was roughly in line with expectations. Headline CPI number moved lower to 6.0% YoY as the February 0.4% print replaced last year’s 0.7% print. Source: Bianco. As of 3/14/23. Next...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 13, 2023 | Blog, Bonds, Macro Updates
2 Years a Movin’ To give some perspective on the move in Fed Funds rate the last couple days, we have just witnessed one of the fastest/ largest slides since 1987. Source: Bloomberg. As of 3/13/23. The chart above shows Fed Funds curve last...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 1, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
While bonds got off to a fast start this year, February’s returns were almost the mirror image from a total return standpoint. As the chart shows, Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index returned -3.32% last month. With data going back to March 1990, this ranks as the...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 16, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The blue line below is what the Fed is communicating per their DOT plot, on the terminal rate going to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The orange line is yesterday’s Fed Funds curve (following CPI). The market expectations for the Fed Funds rate is finally rising to the...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 14, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Another Stubborn CPI Report Likely Pressures Fed to Maintain Hikes The BLS’s latest inflation figures published this morning showed consumer prices rose 6.4% Y/Y in January, slightly higher than consensus. From a high-level view it was a fairly status quo...
