March 2023 CPI Update

Core CPI was in line with a softer shelter print (shelter/OER came in at 0.45%), but the headline was a little soft as energy declined, food was flat. The big question is how will the Fed view this number?   Source: Macro84. As of 4/12/23.   Core still at...

TIPS Update, March 2023

A Look Back on TIPS   Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a type of government bond issued by the US Treasury Department. Unlike conventional bonds, TIPS are designed to protect investors from inflation. This is done by adjusting the bond’s...

The Current Opportunity Set in Bonds

Municipal Spreads are Lacking Luster   Spreads on short municipal paper (10yrs and in) are well inside their historic averages.    Source: UBS. As of March 17th, 2023.   Municipal Supply Remains Tight   The expected muni supply coming to market is...

February 2023 CPI Update

Consumer prices rose in February by the most in 5 months, although the move was roughly in line with expectations. Headline CPI number moved lower to 6.0% YoY as the February 0.4% print replaced last year’s 0.7% print.   Source: Bianco. As of 3/14/23.   Next...

Bank Bailout

2 Years a Movin’   To give some perspective on the move in Fed Funds rate the last couple days, we have just witnessed one of the fastest/ largest slides since 1987.   Source: Bloomberg. As of 3/13/23.   The chart above shows Fed Funds curve last...

Fleeting Bond Rally

While bonds got off to a fast start this year, February’s returns were almost the mirror image from a total return standpoint. As the chart shows, Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index returned -3.32% last month. With data going back to March 1990, this ranks as the...