by John Luke Tyner | Dec 8, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to: Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal How long will policy remain...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 1, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Powell’s comments and the market response yesterday were noteworthy. The equity market rose (SPX +3.05%) while bond yields rallied across the yield curve following Powell’s Brookings Institute presentation. The market was positioned for a hawkish speech and...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 22, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Where Does the Terminal Rate Need to Go? Source: Bloomberg. As of 11/18/22. It’s pretty clear the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, although we believe we are far from returning to the easy money policy experienced the last 10+ years. Given the...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 10, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Year-over-year, CPI rose 7.7%, down from the 8.2% pace reported the month prior and the fourth consecutive month of cooling price pressures, albeit still near a four-decade high. It rose 0.4% in October, less than the 0.6% gain expected and following a similar...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 9, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
Newton’s First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it. The Fed is in motion (hiking rates/QT) and until the external force (lower inflation) acts upon it, expect them to stay in motion (higher...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 31, 2022 | Blog, Bonds
We’ve had a number of questions regarding peak interest rates. Interest rates have of course been a hot topic in 2022… the 4th worst year for government bonds since 1721 has led to an interesting backdrop of uncharted waters. Interest rates can be confusing, and we’ve...
