What Could Stop the Fed?

by | Nov 9, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

Newton’s First Law of Motion states that an object in motion tends to stay in motion unless an external force acts upon it. The Fed is in motion (hiking rates/QT) and until the external force (lower inflation) acts upon it, expect them to stay in motion (higher...

Thoughts on Interest Rates

by | Oct 31, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

We’ve had a number of questions regarding peak interest rates. Interest rates have of course been a hot topic in 2022… the 4th worst year for government bonds since 1721 has led to an interesting backdrop of uncharted waters. Interest rates can be confusing, and we’ve...

10-Year Treasuries Hit 15-Year High

by | Oct 24, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

Treasury yields are once again higher this morning with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest yield in 15 years. It’s currently at 4.32% which matches yields last visited in 2007. The 10-year yield has risen since it hit an intra-day low on Monday, climbing to...

September CPI … Another Hot One

by | Oct 13, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

Another hot print with Core CPI hitting a new cycle high of 6.6% y/y, numbers summarized here:   CPI m/m: +0.4% CPI y/y:   +8.2%   (vs +8.1% exp) Core m/m: +0.6% (vs +0.4% exp) Core y/y: +6.6% (vs +6.5% exp) (vs +0.2% exp)   On a positive note, even with the...

Interest Is The Barometer of Trust

by | Oct 12, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

I’ve been reading Edward Chancellors book The Price of Time over the last couple weeks. It’s a bit dense but found it thoroughly interesting and informative. Basically the entire book walks through the importance of interest and the role it has played in forming our...

Peak Inflation ≠ Peak Yields

by | Sep 28, 2022 | Blog, Bonds

As interest rates continue their hockey stick move higher, we looked back to history for guidance on when we might see peak rates. We discovered a valuable nugget of information: before Volcker, interest rates actually tended to peak after the CPI peaked (often well...