by John Luke Tyner | Aug 15, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Global central bankers will gather later this month in Jackson Hole, WY for their annual meeting. We anticipate markets will seek to understand Powell’s desire to push back on market pricing that the Fed will cut its key rate to around 4% by January 2025 from its...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 11, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The July CPI came out to be another soft report and points to further moderation in inflation. Headline CPI increased by 0.2% MoM (0.167% unrounded), which resulted in the YoY rate increasing two-tenths to 3.2% as base effects were less favorable than last month. For...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 2, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
We’ve all seen the news that Fitch downgraded the US Government’s credit rating from AAA to AA+. Fitch’s move follows a similar cut by S&P about 12 years ago. Source: Bloomberg as of 08.01.2023 Moody’s continues to rate the US AAA (wonder where the...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 1, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Rise in Interest Income is Helping Buoy the Consumer The increase in interest rates over the last 15-18 months has made it is more expensive to borrow money but on the flip side, they have higher yielding options to put cash to work. Source: WSJ as of...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 26, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The Fed raised rates for the 11th time in 16 months, bumping rates +25bp to 5.25%-5.5% at today’s FOMC meeting. This matched the market consensus and puts short-term rates at a 22-year high (last seen January 2001). The Fed kept the statement the same in regard to...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 19, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
With many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have been hammered down, but underlying conditions still give them the backdrop to try putting the...
