by John Luke Tyner | Jul 5, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
QT Slowly Eating Away Liquidity Even with the spike in the Fed’s Balance sheet following the SIVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, QT is still quietly going on in the background. The Fed has stayed course in their communication of the importance of shrinking...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Source: Strategas as of 06.20.2023 Many of the underlying sources of inflation have cooled over the past year. Supply chains have improved, interest rate sensitive sectors are seeing slower growth, but is it enough to get to the fed’s 2% target? The...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 15, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The “Hawkish” Pause Yesterday the Fed left their target for the funds rate unchanged between 5% to 5.25%. Many labeled the pause a hawkish “skip” where further tightening is expected. The Fed DOT plot signaled that there could be two more rate hikes in 2023. QT...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 14, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Year-over-year CPI declined in May, roughly in line with estimates: Headline MoM: +0.1% (Expected: +0.1%) Core MoM: +0.4% (Expected +0.4%) Headline YoY: +4.0% (Expected: 4.0%) Core YoY: +5.3% (Expecting 5.2%) Top/Bottom Contributors: Source:...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 7, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The next Fed meeting starts a week from today. As of now, the market is currently pricing in just a 23% chance the Fed hikes at the meeting. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos already provided his pre-meeting proclamation of a probable pause. At this point, anything other than a...
by John Luke Tyner | May 24, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Not too long ago, markets were pricing potential for a rate cut at the July meeting. That has been pushed out to November as the “hold-and-see” narrative takes over from the hiking rates narrative as the data continues to hold up stronger than expected. Source:...
