Rearview to Windshield, December 2022

November 2022 Market Recap: The S&P 500 bounce in November (+5.4%) occurred as the US yield curve inverted further as the 10 year treasury yields rallied. This is the second straight month of strong gains, as October returned +8.1%. It feels as if the market is...

Aptus Musing: Season Recap

The Cincinnati Bengals had a BYE this week, so I thought that I would do some reflecting not only on their first ten games, but over my last two musings – earnings and the mid-term elections. For the former, unlike the Bengals expectations at the beginning of the...

Aptus Musing: Can That CPI Reaction Stick?

I’ve been asked what we thought about the magnitude and sustainability of last week’s market reaction to Thursday’s CPI print. We love putting things into context and last week’s rally is very difficult to do so. Thursday’s CPI print spurred one of the biggest 1-day...

Rearview to Windshield, November 2022

October 2022 Market Recap: The market ended the month +8.1% in October, as Q3 earnings season looks to be a complete redux of Q2 earnings season. There has been earnings weakness, but largely not as bad as feared in aggregate, while the market seems to be focused on...

Rearview to Windshield, October 2022

Developments Over the Past Month   Can you Hear the Fed Now? September 2022 Market Recap: At the end of September, the Fed removed any remaining doubt about its commitment to getting inflation under control. As a result, both bonds and stocks sold off sharply....

Assessing the Downside

When we think about narratives surrounding slowing economic growth, our job as investors is to translate narrative into number. In other words, if the Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, if the housing market gets sluggish, if unemployment starts to...