Inflation Takeaways: PPI/CPI

August PPI and CPI and Fed Survey Update… QE Taper Coming late ‘21   Boy did we get the tale of two reports from the August inflation data. The PPI report was modestly higher than expectations whereas the CPI report was modestly lower… so which one is right?...

Jackson Hole: To Taper or Not?

Time to Taper? With Caution…Slow and Steady.   We all saw the news last Friday that the much anticipated Jackson Hole Central Bank Conference will now be a virtual event. We also found out that Fed Chairman Powell will be delivering his message virtually. We...

July CPI: Our Take

The U.S. CPI rose +0.5% m/m and 5.4% y/y in July. The core (ex food & energy) CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 4.3% y/y. While these numbers are more moderate vs. recent months, bottlenecks remain in the economy (consumers & businesses continue to report inflation...

Why International?

Let’s Party Like it is 1999! No investor ever wants to participate in a “Lost Decade” – domestic U.S. stocks encountered this problem in the 2000s, international caught it in the 2010s. Moving forward, we believe that traditional fixed income could be the lost...

Can’t Tell The Fed Nothin’

Performance During Taper Tantrums:   I would consider the cliché idiom, “nothing is certain except death and taxes” to be wrong. Why? Because I would personally add the following certain items: The Cincinnati Bengals will lose their next playoff game, and The Fed...

Delta Variant & Flattening Yield Curve

Is the risk off move just a pause in the market after an incredible two quarters to start 2021, or something sinister brewing under the surface? The equity market’s reaction Monday (7/19) showcased fear of the Delta variant derailing the economic recovery as new cases...