by John Luke Tyner | Jul 19, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
With many declaring the Fed’s work done, we thought it made sense to discuss the challenges that still remain in this hiking cycle. The headline inflation numbers have been hammered down, but underlying conditions still give them the backdrop to try putting the...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 21, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Source: Strategas as of 06.20.2023 Many of the underlying sources of inflation have cooled over the past year. Supply chains have improved, interest rate sensitive sectors are seeing slower growth, but is it enough to get to the fed’s 2% target? The...
by Aptus PM Team | Jun 16, 2023 | Blog, Charts
Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence: John Luke: Most of the yield curve has separated itself from the Fed Funds rate, with seemingly no rush...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 14, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
Year-over-year CPI declined in May, roughly in line with estimates: Headline MoM: +0.1% (Expected: +0.1%) Core MoM: +0.4% (Expected +0.4%) Headline YoY: +4.0% (Expected: 4.0%) Core YoY: +5.3% (Expecting 5.2%) Top/Bottom Contributors: Source:...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 7, 2023 | Blog, Bonds
The next Fed meeting starts a week from today. As of now, the market is currently pricing in just a 23% chance the Fed hikes at the meeting. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos already provided his pre-meeting proclamation of a probable pause. At this point, anything other than a...
